Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 282336 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 730 PM UPDATE... FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. SATURDAY NIGHT... MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY * ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK * LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED OR THU OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING. ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION. OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY. DETAILS... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO. GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH... CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...FRANK/EVT MARINE...FRANK/EVT

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