Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 311047 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 547 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY WINDS. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR CAPE COD WITH BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW ROTATING BACK ACROSS E MA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS INDICATING STEADIER SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME QPF ENHANCEMENT OVER THE OUTER CAPE THROUGH THE MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD. MAIN FOCUS FOR MINOR ACCUM THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CAPE ANN AND THE OUTER CAPE WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB FOR ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS OUTER CAPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS E MA...MAINLY A COATING TO ONE HALF INCH. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS E MA INTO THE MORNING...EXITING THE OUTER CAPE BY MIDDAY. CLEARING SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS E NEW ENG LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH FULL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WEST. STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS 35-45 MPH EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH NEAR THE COAST. BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -20 THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND W NEW ENG AND -5 TO -10 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO -5 TO +5. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING INTO N NEW ENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT...BUT REMAINING RATHER GUSTY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS WITH TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. SUNDAY... ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH S INTO SNE REACHING THE S COAST BY EVENING. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS OVERRUNNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BUT REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BUT DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS TOWARD EVENING ACROSS N ZONES AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO DRAIN SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS... * LOW PRES PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT AND MON...COLD AIR IN PLACE SIGNALS PLOWABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION * WINTER STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO COVER ENTIRE REGION * AS LOW EXITS MON NIGHT...MORE ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS MOVE IN...WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY * RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES * ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLE WED OR THU...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES OVERVIEW... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL H5 SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TEMPS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND MID WEEK. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND WED OR THU. DETAILS... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z MON. BY THEN... THOUGH...EXCELLENT OVERRUNNING IN PLACE WITH DEEP MOISTURE FEED WORKING INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND HIGH PRES MOVING IN TANDEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA... WILL NOT BE DISPLACED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WILL SEE STRONG INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ALONG 40N LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING NE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MON EVENING. EXCELLENT DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS...SO EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE S. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR S OF THE MASS PIKE...BUT THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. ONLY QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER A PIECE OF SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK INTO THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE A BRIEF MIX WITH SLEET OR EVEN RAIN MON MORNING OR MIDDAY. ONCE THE LOW PASSES...THOUGH...WILL CHANGE QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SNOW ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME OF THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE IF ANYONE EVEN VENTURES OUT OF DOORS MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS WELL. WITH ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND QPF TOTALS ON ORDER OF 0.6 TO 1.1 INCHES FROM N-S ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 13:1 OR SO PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AROUND 10:1 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE REGION...ADDING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE ISLANDS TO THE WATCH. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT EXITS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE N-NW WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST. AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER N-NE WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE UP TO ONE OR TWO FEET...BUT BECAUSE THE SURGE IS NOT COINCIDING WITH HIGH TIDE...WE DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT CLOSELY THOUGH. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COME CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING. MAINLY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE RECORDS. TUESDAY... HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS. WILL SEE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EARLY TUE...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...RANGING TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE ON WED...WITH A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR. TEMPS WED INTO THU MAY ACTUALLY REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT DUE TO WIDE MODEL VARIANCE. FOR NOW...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE OF PRECIP...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...AS COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU. FRIDAY... ANOTHER HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD E WITH MORE COLD AIR...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TODAY...N-S BAND OF -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO E MA SHIFTING TO JUST CAPE COD AFT 12Z BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES IN EASTERN NEW ENG. NW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT. TONIGHT...VFR WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 12Z. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR- VLIFR WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM W-E. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT STARTING MON AFTERNOON THEN VEER TO NW BUT REMAIN GUSTY MON NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT...BUT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER ALONG E COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTING TO 25-30 KT EARLY THEN SHOULD DIMINISH. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MIDDAY. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO N MA DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SNOW SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...GALE CENTER LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES WITH NW GALES CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS TO 40-45 KT LIKELY WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY OVER EASTERN MA WATERS IN THE MORNING. TONIGHT...GALE CENTER PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE 00-06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS. SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER EASTERN WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK FROM NW TO N DURING THE NIGHT...GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. VSBYS LOWER IN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW FROM W-E. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING E-NE WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 14-17 FT ON THE EASTERN WATERS AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES S OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BUT REMAIN GUSTY MON NIGHT. REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW...FALLING HEAVILY AT TIMES. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 8-10 FT BUT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT TUE NIGHT...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT. WEDNESDAY....MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE...MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SEAS ALSO REMAIN AROUND 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG WINDS. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3... BOSTON -5 SET IN 1881 PROVIDENCE -6 SET IN 1961 WORCESTER -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971 WINDSOR LOCKS -3 SET IN 1955 BLUE HILL OBS -7 SET IN 1955
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002-003. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>024-026. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016- 019>021. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003-004- 010-011. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002- 008-009. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>007. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232- 250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251- 254>256. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233>235-237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT CLIMATE...EVT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.