Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 251750 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1250 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1 PM UPDATE...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST MAY PUT A STOP TO RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. THEREFORE...NOT DROPPING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE IF SKIES REMAINED CLEAR. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BEFORE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY/QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY BUT DEFINITELY A DETERIORATING TREND. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST MOVING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOREASTER/BLIZZARD. THESE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY /7 PM MONDAY/. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS SE MA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT * BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI * 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE * DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH * SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DETAILS... THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS. 1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OF COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT. VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI. GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS! WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED. ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT. WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO WATCH. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST. DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. THIS MAY COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. 2) TIMING: THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME WED MORNING. 3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE BLIZZARD...WE WILL UPDATE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS TIME PERMITS. AT THIS POINT...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR FRI. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SCT-BKN040 POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. W WINDS GUST TO 30 KTS. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. START OFF VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS AND SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...THEY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 18Z. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TIMING IN QUESTION. N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE EARLY ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF LOW PRES AND NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LATER THU OR PERHAPS FRI. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ***LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET AND WINDS GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY*** MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. STORM WATCHES POSTED AND LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE MAY NEED HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS! THIS IS DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND MARINERS SHOULD RETURN TO PORT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LEFTOVER N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING WED...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH WED NIGHT. THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KNOTS WILL SEAS BUILDING TO OVER 25 FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER WATERS. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 10.5 FEET IN BOSTON ON TUESDAY AT 430 AM. THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3+ FOOT STORM SURGE MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SINCE SEAS WILL BE BUILT UP. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-013>021. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-022>024-026. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ022>024. RI...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/DOODY TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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