Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 271912 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 210 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGHLIGHTS... * BLIZZARD CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT * SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES * DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE CAPE/NANTUCKET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT 1235 PM UPDATE... JUST LIGHTER SNOWFALL REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA AT AROUND NOON. THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNGRADED NORTHERN CT TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH IT ALL PRETTY MUCH OVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI. THIS A RESULT OF WELL DEVELOPED STORM AND A GOOD MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS REGION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING TO LIGHTER SNOWFALL BY EARLY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIFE THREATENING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. SNOW WILL DIMINISH SOME IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN POWERFUL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG. TONIGHT... AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEDNESDAY... EXPECT COASTAL STORM TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY. LAST OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST WED MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE BLUSTERY NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG THE COAST AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO -12C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED N-S ELONGATED HIGH PRES. AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM. THIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE NEW SNOW PACK...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS INLAND TO DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND -5 ACROSS THE COLDER INLAND VALLEYS...RANGING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OTHER AREAS EXCEPT HOLDING AROUND 20 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THURSDAY... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER SURFACE LOW IN THIS W-NW FLOW. RIDGE EARLY THU MORNING WILL PUSH E AS LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SNEAK INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO SW...SO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...MILDEST ALONG THE S COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * CLIPPER LOW MAY BRING MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRI * MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... NOTING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS LIE IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES FOR A CONSENSUS FORECAST. DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... EXPECT CLIPPER LOW TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A COUPLE OF WEAK H5 SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. HOWEVER... FAIRLY GOOD QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO COULD SEE A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... LOW PRES AND SHORT WAVE EXIT THE REGION DURING FRI NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING THE EXIT OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...NOTING ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WORKING IN AS H85 TEMPS DIVE TO -18C TO -22C BY 12Z SAT. SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDDAY SAT BUT VERY COLD. HIGH PRES LOOKS TO CROSS DURING SUNDAY...THEN TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON. LOW CONFIDENCE AS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND TRACK CONTINUE. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW EAST OF THE CT VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN MASS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN RHODE ISLAND. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW BAND SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AND BELOW 1 MILE. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE STORM CENTER EAST OF NANTUCKET...EXPECT THE SNOW BAND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN MASS/RI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVING TREND AFTER 22Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE IN THE EAST WITH 50-60 KNOT GUSTS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE EASTERN AREAS BECOME VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH ALL AREAS UNDER 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20 KNOTS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN AND PATCHY FOG THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN IMPROVING FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS E MA EARLY. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. *** POWERFUL STORM PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS *** WE STILL HAVE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 KT WITH SEAS NEAR 30 FEET STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERN WATERS. WE DID CONVERT HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS OVER TO STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST ENOUGH...BUT DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THU INTO THU NIGHT. W-NW WINDS INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY. SATURDAY...NW GALE GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS ALONG WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... *** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET *** FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO THE DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES. BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE. GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM TRURO TO CHATHAM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007- 012>023. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007- 015-016-019-022-024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-255-256. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251. STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-233-234. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235>237. STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254. STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...FRANK/KJC/EVT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

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