Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 292315 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 715 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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715 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS. WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT * MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK * INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER WEEKEND OVERVIEW... NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. DETAILS... * TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. * TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH. * WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. * THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. * SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000 FEET. MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230- 236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG

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