Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270752 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 352 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY THEN RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY. NONETHELESS BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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TODAY... ONE MORE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU THE MEAN NORTHEASTERN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS JET IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS NY STATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. NO PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...JUST SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL/DRY AIR. HOWEVER THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE OH VLY BUILDING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL YIELD LESS CLOUDS/MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/55-60/...LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL MILDER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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TONIGHT... DEEP LAYER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CREST OVER THE AREA...COMBINING WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. GIVEN THIS FOLLOWED THE COOLER MOS GUID FOR TEMPS INSTEAD OF A MODEL BLEND. TUESDAY... WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. TRUE WARM SECTOR DOESN/T OVERSPREAD THE REGION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR TUE NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO 925 MB WHERE TEMPS ARE +11C WILL RESULT IN MILD WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY DAYS END.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD AFTERNOON/S TUE AND WED * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING BUT NOT A WASHOUT * MAINLY DRY AND COOL THU AND FRI * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND * STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACT ON SNE BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 27.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM..REGARDING RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM EACH LEND CONFIDENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THANKS TO DECENT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...WILL USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS A BASELINE FOR THE FORECAST. OF NOTE IS A BUILDING RIDGE LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A SUPPRESSION AND STRETCHING OF THE FIRST OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REIGN...WEAKENING IT. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A MORE ROBUST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE S FROM BAFFIN ISLAND AND ACROSS HUDSON BAY...CULMINATING IN A POTENTIAL CUTOFF N OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...TO DOES LOOK LIKE A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. DETAILS... WED NIGHT... MAINLY DRY BUT MILD AS SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...OR AT THE VERY LEAST LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE EVENING TEMPS IN THE LOW- UPPER 50S. DWPTS WILL BE RISING...APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE S COAST BY MORNING. THEREFORE...COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS...WITH SST/S IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WED AND WED NIGHT... THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL STRETCHING THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY ON WED. DO NOTE A MODES INCREASE IN PWATS TO AROUND. 1.25 INCHES COUPLED WITH THE MODEST LEFTOVER F-GEN WHICH COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...COULD BE SOME AREAS REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FROPA AS THE FRONT STRETCHES OUT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHES FROM THE RIDGE TO THE E. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE DELMARVA WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE TUE EVENING...WHICH COULD INCREASE -SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR OR SE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THESE TOO WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD MORNING THU. IN ESSENCE...CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN FOR SOME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT DRY FOR OTHERS. MILD WEATHER CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH LIKELY COOLER THAN POTENTIALLY ABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. THU INTO FRI... HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITHIN A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE WED FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS NEAR 0-1C SUGGESTS TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMING WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW PRES LIKELY TO THE N...THE SFC REFLECTION A LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND...MAY TRANSFER IT/S ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRES. IN ANY CASE...ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MID LVL LIFT IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS...AMONGST COOLER AND BLUSTER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...H85 TEMPS COULD AVERAGE -5C BY PEAK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LIFT AND ACTUAL SFC-MID LVL OUTCOMES. LATE DAY SUN INTO MON... COOLER HIGH PRES QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH BLUSTERY/COOLER CONDITIONS SUN GIVING WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES MON. STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...VFR CIGS BKN035-050...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THEN SPREADING INTO EASTERN MA TOWARD SUNRISE. THEN SKC TOWARDS MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WSW WINDS 10-20 KT BECOME NW 15-25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR WITH MODEST NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND SW LATE. TUESDAY...VFR WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE IN THE DAY. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG. WED INTO WED EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THU AND FRI... HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOWERING CIGS FRI AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...W WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT...THEN DECREASE AROUND MIDDAY AND FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. TONIGHT...LIGHT NW WIND BECOMES SSW LATE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. TUE...SSW WINDS INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20-25 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY CONTINUE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NW FLOW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BELOW 25 KT...A BRIEF GUST TO THIS LEVEL IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN SWELL WED AND WED NIGHT. THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230>237-251-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY

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