Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181416 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 916 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After a chilly start this morning mild temperatures overspread southern New England this afternoon through Sunday. Dry weather prevails this weekend as well. A dry cold front swings through Southern New England Sunday night, bringing a return to chilly weather into Tuesday. Milder weather returns the middle of next week. However, another pair of fronts may be accompanied by some precipitation sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 915 AM update... Area of mid clouds assocd with weak warm advection moving across northern MA this morning. These clouds will exit around midday, otherwise mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon. SW low level jet will bring milder temps and also some gusty winds. Current forecast on track. Previous Discussion... WAA pattern overspreading the area early this morning in the form of mid/high clouds. These clouds will move offshore this afternoon with increasing sunshine. This WAA pattern will be accompanied by a strengthening low level SSW jet. This will result in breezy to windy conditions this afternoon with strongest winds across RI and eastern MA where model soundings support gusts up to 30-35 mph this afternoon. This low level warming will yield highs this afternoon in the upper 40s and low 50s, well above normal with climo being about 40 for a high temp this time of year. Leaned toward the warmer MOS temps for today`s high temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... 2 AM update... Tonight... Not as cold as previous nights with WAA pattern yielding 925 mb temps of +6C to +10C across southern New England! Low pres tracking across northern New England will support a modest westerly surface winds, precluding decoupling from occurring. This will result in most locations remaining above freezing all night! Dry weather prevails. Sunday... A dry cold front moves across the region during the afternoon. Given a mild start to the day with morning temps only in the 30s combined with partly to mostly sunny conditions and CAA holding off until after 18z...highs will likely climb into the low to mid 50s (except upper 40s high terrain), well above the normal high of 40 degs! Model soundings support breezy conditions developing by late morning and into the afternoon with WNW gusting up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big Picture... Amplified mid level flow morphs into a nearly unified zonal flow across the entire USA toward mid week. More amplified flow possible develops late next week. As mentioned previously, as long as there is a distinct southern jet intercepting Gulf moisture, our weather will likely remain dry. Model mass fields remain similar through Tuesday, then diverge. Differences are mostly in details rather than the general pattern. Confidence for the long term is moderate to high, with highest confidence Sunday, then diminishing confidence with time. Details... For the most part, a quiet period for weather. Sunday Night through Tuesday... Lack of moisture during this period will mean dry weather, with some clouds from time to time. Expecting near normal temperatures through this period. High pressure moves east through New England Tuesday. Tuesday Night into Wednesday... Both a warm and cold front should move across New England. Not a lot of moisture available, but enough to mention a low probability of showers. Depending on timing, temperatures may be low enough where some spotty freezing rain would be possible. Thursday into Friday... High pressure builds surface and aloft Thursday, bringing dry weather. Southwest winds should mean another period of well above normal temperatures. A larger low pressure may approach late next week. General theme from the latest guidance is this low pressure should pass through the Great Lakes. This track would mean more of a rain event, than one for snow. Much above normal temperatures continue. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 7 AM update... High confidence through Sunday. Today... VFR and dry weather. Only issue today will be strengthening SSW surface winds with gusts up to 25-30 kt this afternoon, mainly across southern RI and SE MA. Tonight... VFR and dry weather continue along with decreasing surface winds. However winds remain strong aloft yielding LLWS. Sunday... VFR and dry weather with modest WNW winds. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...Moderate confidence. Sunday night through Tuesday... Generally VFR. A cold front moving through Sunday night could bring brief MVFR cigs. West winds ahead of the cold front turn from the North overnight and Monday with gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds diminish Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. Wednesday... Cold front sweeps through with Southwest winds leading the front, then shifting from the West after passage. CIGs and Vsbys lower to MVFR in showers, then improve to VFR after the front moves through. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Range /through Sunday/...High confidence. 7 AM update... Today... SSW winds increase today to around 30 kt near shore this afternoon, 20-25 kt offshore. Dry weather and good vsby. Tonight... SSW winds not as strong and become westerly late. Dry weather and good vsby continue. Sunday... west winds become NW late in the day as a dry cold front sweeps across the region. WNW winds will likely gusts up to 25 kt or so. Dry weather and good vsby continue. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...Moderate confidence. Monday into Tuesday... North winds gust 25 to 30 knots Monday, diminishing Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Rough seas east of Cape Cod and Nantucket Monday, but diminish Monday night and Tuesday. Seas on the remaining waters should be less than 5 feet. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this time. Wednesday... A cold front will cross the waters later Wednesday. Increasing south-southwest winds ahead of this front. Winds then shift from the west after the cold front goes through. Winds should remain at 20 knots or less, and seas less than 5 feet. && .EQUIPMENT... 2 AM update...KBOX radar is off-line again. Technicians will be in the morning. We apologize for any inconvenience. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Nocera MARINE...Belk/Nocera EQUIPMENT...

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