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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND STALL DURING TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT DIMINISHING SUN...BUT EVEN WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOWER THICKER CLOUDS HAVE REACHED CENTRAL NY/EASTERN PA AND WILL
PROGRESS EAST. FORWARD PROGRESS WOULD BRING THEM TO THE CT VALLEY
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM/CENTRAL HILLS 3 TO 430 PM/COASTAL PLAIN 430 TO
6 PM.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING FROM A
MID LEVEL DECK...ANY NON-TRACE AMOUNTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS TO THE WEST.
THESE WOULD MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING

LATE MORNING TEMPS 65 WEST TO 75 EAST. TWIN CONCERNS THAT MAX
TEMP FORECAST BE COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM IN THE WEST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND A COUPLE TOO COOL IN THE EAST DUE TO SUN. ALY MORNING
RAOB SHOWED 10.5C AT 850 MB AND 6.2C AT 800 MB...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE AT STANDARD ATMOSPHERE. SO A FULLY MIXED MAX TEMP
WOULD BE AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S AND SUN IN THE EAST SHOULD FULLY REALIZE THIS VALUE. MAX
TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE TWO CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRAGGING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODEST 30 KT LLJ...AS WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES /6.5+C/KM
BY ABOUT 06Z/ THANKS TO SOME COOLING APPARENT AT ABOUT H5.
THEREFORE...STILL A THREAT FOR SOME /ELEVATED/ CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM INLAND TO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NOT A WASHOUT HERE BUT AN
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOUR THANKS TO 1.0-1.5 INCH PWATS AND A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THIS ONLY BECAUSE
OF THE RECENT RAINS WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE REGION.

WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAVE FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE S COAST THANKS TO RISING DWPTS AND RETURN SW
FLOW.

MONDAY...
TRICKY SITUATION REGARDING POTENTIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WRAPPING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DRAGGING
WITH IT YET ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NOW IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS. THE KEY WILL BE
THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT...MODELS SB CAPE
VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED.
THIS WOULD OF COURSE BE PREDICATED ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS LEFT
OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INITIALLY AS IT COULD EASILY LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. AM NOTING 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT FORM...WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE WEST...WHERE SKIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING AS THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE W.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF
FORECAST UPDATES AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE
WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW
ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT
S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND
KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.  THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  A PIECE OF THIS
MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW.

MON NIGHT...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SPILLING INTO SNE MON
EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO NEW
ENG.  NOT CERTAIN THERE WILL BE STORMS BUT ANY THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OTHERWISE...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT
LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH
CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE
EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

SATURDAY...
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK.

TONIGHT...
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORT
WATERS SURROUNDING CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BRIEF AFTERNOON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN AN OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING DAY.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VSBY AND WIND ISSUES.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW TODAY...SEAS MAY APPROACH 5-6 FT ON
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS SO HAVE AN OVERNIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS THREAT AS WELL.

FINALLY...ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER LAND AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE CRESTED AND ARE GRADUALLY
RECEDING THANKS TO A DAY+ OF DRY WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION REGARDING ANY FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT. THE LIST BELOW IS A GENERAL LIST OF
THOSE RIVERS THAT STILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. RUNOFF FROM THIS PCPN COULD CHANGE
THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING WATERS.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 230 PM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY ABOVE FS AND FALLING
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN MA...
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FS AND FALLING

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...