Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290842 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 442 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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2 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SW NH TO AROUND 60 ACROSS S COASTAL MA AT 05Z. NOTING TEMPS ARE SLOWLY RISING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH DEWPTS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR KMHT-KORH-KIJD S AND E EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AT 03Z...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA. LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIP SEEN ACROSS FAR N NY INTO NW VT. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS REPORTED IN THIS AREA...THOUGH. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...INCLUDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS TO NEAR TERM TRENDS. EVEN WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY SPRINKLES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. TODAY... COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD ENTER WESTERN REGIONS ABOUT 12Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 03-06Z. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW -2...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A 30-40 KT JUST OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONG SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT IT CAN PULL DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER LOCATIONS OUT WEST MAY BE COOLER AS COLD FRONT PASSES THEM. EASTERN MASS AND RHODE ISLAND MAY SNEAK UP TO 70F BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER AS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR WILL BE USHERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CAA. SO ANTICIPATE A COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BIG PICTURE... 29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE... AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED. THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS. THE DAILIES... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR NORTHEAST. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF LIFR IN LOCAL DENSE FOG...GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST FROM ABOUT KMHT-KORH-KIJD EAST. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER 09Z. TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E. TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT...S-SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO POSSIBLE 30KTS AND BUILDING SOUTHERN SEAS TO 6FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE WNW AND GUST UP TO 15 KTS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/EVT MARINE...BELK/EVT

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