Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 011923 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 323 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1000 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGING MAKING IT TO WORCESTER AND GROTON AS OF 1000 AM. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY HEAVY PRECIP MOVES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TOO. OVERALL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A SATURATED LOW LEVEL ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE FOCUSSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S. WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA. UPPER FLOW IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG. RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL MA UNTIL AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET. VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN SHOWERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/RLG MARINE...WTB/RLG

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