Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 221734 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 134 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring beautiful late summer weather today and Tuesday with low humidity. Warmer and more humid weather is expected Wednesday through Friday along with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms Thu night into Friday. Dry and less humid weather may return next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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130 pm update... Just some sct cu across SNE which will erode this afternoon as low level drier air continues to advect into the region. Dewpoints falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds will gust to 25-30 mph at times with good mixing in cold advection pattern. High temps will range from the mid 70s across the higher terrain, to the lower 80s on the coastal plain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tonight... High pressure building in from the west will result in mainly clear skies and diminishing wind. Given the dry airmass behind this morning`s cold front, it will be an ideal setup for radiational cooling. Expect the normally coolest outlying locations to bottom out in the middle to upper 40s, while the urban heat island in Boston will be the warm spot only dropping to around 60. Tuesday... Another beautiful day for southern New England, but with less wind with high pressure in control. Mostly sunny skies will result in afternoon high temps in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, but with low humidity. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights... * Warmer and more humid Wed thru Fri * Dry much of this week except a risk of T-storms Thu ngt/Fri * Dry and less humid weather may return next weekend Overview and model preferences... After a brief cool down Tue night the subtropical ridge builds northward up the eastern seaboard resulting in a warming trend and more humid conditions Wed through Friday. Good model agreement on next northern stream trough arriving around Fri. This trough will erode the northern edge of the subtropical ridge over the area resulting in lowering heights and a return to less humid weather and near seasonable temperatures next weekend. Details... Wed and Thu ... high pressure moving offshore with return flow yielding low level warm advection. This will result in highs warming into the mid and upper 80s...possibly touching 90 Thu with warmest readings away from the south coast given onshore winds. Humidity still comfortable Wed with dew pts in the 50s but rising into the 60s by Thu. Fri ... Good model agreement on next northern stream short wave traversing the region during this time...Thu night into Fri. Forcing for ascent appears weak along with marginal shear and instability. Thus for now at this time range slight chance and chance pops seems reasonable. It will be warm and humid ahead of the frontal passage. Saturday and Sunday ... Good agreement among the ensembles /both EPS and GEFS/ high pressure building into the northeast. Thus at least avg forecast confidence on this portion of the forecast. So trend here is for temps not as warm as Wed - Fri timeframe along with less humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/... Through 00z. VFR. NW gusts to 25 kt. Tonight through Tuesday night...High confidence. Winds diminish this evening and VFR conditions persist. Some patchy late night and early morning radiation fog possible in typical fog prone locations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze should develop Tue afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... High confidence in a stretch of mainly dry VFR weather. Sea breezes most likely mid-late week.
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&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/... 950 am update... Expanded the SCA to include BOS harbor, Mass Bay and Narragansett Bay where nearshore gusts will be strongest. A few gusts to 25 kt likely. Today and tonight...High confidence. Near shore northwest wind gusts of 20 to perhaps close to 25 knots expected today. Opted to leave the near shore waters out of any headlines, but day shift will likely have to re-evaluate. We did hoist small craft headlines for our outer eastern MA waters, where northwest 25 knot wind gusts and 3 to 5 foot seas may develop for a time late this afternoon and evening. Tuesday...High confidence. High pressure building in from the west will keep winds and seas below small craft advisory thresholds along with excellent visibility. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...High confidence. Tuesday night through Thursday ... High confidence. Quiet boating weather as slow moving high pressure builds over the waters. By Thu SSW winds will likely become gusty near shore. Friday...Moderate confidence. Increasing SSW flow and seas, may just touch small craft criteria. Otherwise, late day risk of showers and thunderstorms over the waters. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236-251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Doody NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...KJC/Nocera MARINE...KJC/Frank/Nocera

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