Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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038 FXUS61 KBOX 260650 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 250 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring dry but continued hot conditions Today and Wednesday. A cold front approaches the area on Thursday. This front may linger in our area into this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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Upper shortwave moves across New England overnight, driving a surface wind shift across our area. Even with that wind shift, airmass temperatures cool very little. High pressure builds in from the west bringing subsidence and sunshine and deep mixing. But lingering moisture near 850 mb should allow for some diurnal clouds to develop. Mixing will bring down some wind gusts near 20 knots. Temps aloft are roughly 15-17C on the GFS and 16-18C on the ECMWF. Mixing should allow for max surface temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dew points over Upstate New York are in the mid 60s, with low 60s to the north and west. This will mean a little less humidity, but still enough to be noticed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Tonight... High presure builds in with diminishing wind. Dew points 60 to 65 will keep min temps in the 60s, with low 70s along the coast. Wednesday... High pressure remains in control with sunshine. Upper flow shows a weak shortwave moving through, but less cloud-level moisture for sky cover. Light wind near the surface will allow for developing sea breezes along the coasts. Temps aloft around 18C should support sfc max temps in the interior in the low to mid 90s, cooler values near the coastline. Dew points linger around 60 or in the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Highlights... * Cold front approaches the region on Thursday * Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Friday and possibly into the weekend Overview... 25/12z guidance is in decent overall agreement through mid week.However there continues to be significant differences in solutions for Thursday night and on. 12Z models seem to be in general agreement on bringing a cold front into our area Thursday or Thursday night. However, models differ on when the front pushes south of our area. Will continue to go with a consensus approach for this forecast. Details... Thursday...We should see another day of hot conditions, however a cold front will be approaching our area from the N/NW. Moisture increasing along the front should enable isolated to scattered afteroon t-storms on Thursday/Thursday evening. Thursday night and Friday...Uncertainty increases with this portion of the forecast. Models differ on how far south cold front pushes, as well as timing on potential open wave or deeper low pressure passing near/south of our area. Will have chance pops for showers/t- storms. Friday high temps expected to be a few degrees lower than previous days. Saturday and Sunday...Lots of uncertainty remains with this portion of the forecast, leading to a low confidence forecast. ECMWF keeps frontal boundary nearby, with potential low pressure moving along the front. GFS pushes the front south of our area for much of the weekend. Will continue with a chance of showers for this timeframe. Monday...Continued significant amount of uncertainty for this timeframe, could have a drier period with frontal boundary exiting the area. Will go with only slight chance pop for this period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/... High confidence. Today... VFR for the most part. Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in morning fog/low clouds will quickly burn off. Northwest winds with gusts 15-20 knots during the afternoon. Tonight... VFR. Patches of IFR cigs/vsbys in fog late at night. Wednesday... VFR. Fog burns off around sunrise. Light variable wind becoming onshore along the coastline. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to high confidence. Moderate confidence Thursday through Saturday. Mainly VFR conditions Thursday, except MVFR cigs/vsbys possible in scattered afternoon/eveningshowers/thunderstorms. Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR cigs/vsbys possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms. Potential for patchy low ceilings/fog at night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence. Winds remain below 20 knots and seas below 5 feet through the period. Winds become Northwest today, then variable tonight and Wednesday. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate to high confidence. During Thursday into Saturday winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria, but the potential exists for areas of low clouds, fog, and scattered showers and thunderstorms which would limit visibilities at times.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Much drier conditions are expected today across southern New England behind the departing cool front. Minimum relative humidity is expected to range from 30 to 40 percent across much of the area. The exception is along Cape Ann and the Cape/Islands, where minimum RH values of 40 to 60 percent are forecast. Northwest winds around 10 mph may gust to 20 mph at times. Winds are expected to be lighter on Wednesday with nearshore sea breeze develompent. However, minimum RH will again reach 30 to 40 percent across the interior. Along east coastal MA and southern RI, sea breezes will allow for higher minimum RH of 40 to 70 percent.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...WTB/NMB MARINE...WTB/NMB FIRE WEATHER...

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