Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 301055 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 655 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 700 AM UPDATE... WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RADAR TO BLOSSOM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING SUPPORT SNOW. IN FACT...A FEW BANDS HAVE SET UP...ONE CROSSING THE BERKSHIRES WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CT. PER WEBCAMS AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS THESE BANDS WILL DROP VSBYS NEAR 3 SM AND COAT THE GROUND QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE BANDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS STILL MARGINAL SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCT IN NATURE. ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK BY PITTSBURGH...AND SHOULD BE CROSSING THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWERS. YET BY THIS TIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 40S TO ALLOW FOR P-TYPES TO BE IN THE LIQUID FORM. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MIXING INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE 30-40 KNOTS...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CLIPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. ALL MODELS BRING SOME MEASURABLE PCPN INTO CT BY EVENING...THE GFS COVERS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...AND THE NAM HAS MEASURABLE PCPN EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MOST PLACES EXCEPT SNOW IN THE HILLS. TIMING OF THE PCPN WOULD BE AFTER 21Z. WE HAVE SHIFTED OUR POPS FARTHER NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS REACHING TO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE BY 00Z. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT * MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK * INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND OVERVIEW... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED INTO THURSDAY. WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS A COLD FRONT REACHING THE NORTHEAST LATE THUR THROUGH SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LOW CIRCLING AROUND HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE HAS LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE RUN FOR THE ALBERTA CLIPPER INCREASING PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ON WED BUT THE OVERALL COLD FRONT IS SPLIT AMONGST GUIDANCE. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE SFC FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC FRI COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO BLEND WITH WPC UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT. DETAILS... * TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS WHICH IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMS ONCE TEMPS DROP DUE TO WETBULBING. STILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THERE IS STILL SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLAND. * WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. * THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES... MODULATED BY THE SFC COLD FRONT THU INTO SAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE THE WARMEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN OVER FOUR MONTHS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT PASSES EXPECT TEMPS TO RETURN TO BELOW AVG BY ABOUT 5-15F. ANTICIPATE THIS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC AND CMC. APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SAT. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCE...DECIDED TO BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. CAN STAY THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK WARM SO EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO BE MORE OF THE RAIN FORM. HOWEVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT COULD SEE SOME WET FLAKES. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TODAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS. TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT AND RI TOWARD EVENING. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PROB OF ACCUM SNOW ON RUNWAYS AND MVFR CONDITION. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS BY FRI EVENING. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TOWARD EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLANDS/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS. TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. TUESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE WATERS. LINGERING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF GALES FORCE WINDS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX. FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-233-234- 236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN

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