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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBOX 162000 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 400 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND STALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --THROUGH MIDNIGHT... COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH 1 MB/HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LEADING THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER THE ADIRONDAKS AND NORTHERN VT/NH MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VT WILL CROSS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES BY 6 PM. TRAILING SHOWERS MORE PROXIMATE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM. FARTHER SOUTH...JUST SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL EVENING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION WEST-EAST 6-9 PM AND EXIT WEST-EAST 7-10 PM. UPSTREAM RAINFALL FROM THE BROADER NORTHERN AREA HAS TOTALED 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES. MEANWHILE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY HAS BEEN LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. OVERNIGHT... CLEARING IS ENTERING FAR WESTERN NY BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THIS CLEARING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHED WIND MAY ALLOW FOG PATCHES TO FORM OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE 55-60...WHICH IS A GOOD TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS VALUES.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --MONDAY... ONE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST USA. A 105 KNOT UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TDURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIVES A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND/NY. STABILITY PARAMETERS TELL A FAVORABLE STORY WITH LI AT -1/-2...TOTALS 46-50...SBCAPE REACHING 200-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING SOUTH/EAST DURING THE EVENING. TEMPS AT 850 MB 12-14C AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MONDAY NIGHT... THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FADING...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER JET NEARBY WITH FAVORABLE UPPER VENTING TO MAINTAIN SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT * DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DECENT MID LEVEL TROF PASSES TO THE NORTH TUE WITH THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NEW ENG. HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SUBSEQUENT CLEARING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH WHICH MAY SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. THINK THE GFS IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE FRONT S...AND WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND KEEPS UNSETTLED PATTERN TUE POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREAFTER...DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OCCURS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. A PIECE OF THIS MIDWEST HEAT WILL TRY TO SNEAK INTO SNE NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SW. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE LEANED TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEW ENG TUE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS TUE WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH MAY LINGER NEAR THE S COAST TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODERATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE S WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. SATURDAY... MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT DAY 7.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH 00Z... AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NEW YORK IS MOSTLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THERE WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF THIS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS WOULD BE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE AT MHT...LEAST CHANCE AT ACK. TONIGHT... LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z WITH CLEARING BEHIND. THE CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REGION. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH THIS EVENING... REPORTED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WE HAVE OPTED TO DROP SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE AREAS. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BUILD SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FEET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EXPANDED IT INTO THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD. MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. WEATHER ON THE WATERS WILL BE QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND MAY BECOME A FACTOR ON THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AND STALL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TSTMS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH N/NE WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .HYDROLOGY...-- Changed Discussion --DRY WEATHER IS ALLOWING RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO CREST AND RECEDE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY WHERE RUNOFF COULD CHANGE THE TIMING FOR THE RECEDING WATERS. RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS OF 330 PM. ALL EXCEPT THE CHARLES RIVER MAY BE ENDED SOMETIME THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. IN CT... FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY IS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING IN MA... CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AT CREST AND STEADY IN RI... PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FALLING IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...WTB/KJC MARINE...WTB/KJC HYDROLOGY...
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