Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 101733 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 133 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY AND TONIGHT...YIELDING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH COAST. ELSEWHERE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TURNING LESS HUMID. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... W FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF HIGH PRES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT BASICALLY THROUGH ACK SOUND SW TOWARD LI. DON/T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS THANKS TO CONVECTION OFF THE DELMARVA. THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN WARRANTED FOR ACK MAINLY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE VINEYARD AND S COAST OF CAPE COD. WILL MAINTAIN THESE POPS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING HIGHER. OTHERWISE...STILL AWAITING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR E COAST. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERY WEATHER ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS SOME CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARMER/HUMID AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMER ACROSS THE METRO REGION OF BOS AND PVD. TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT STILL LINGERING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY...SOME INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME QPF ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME LIFT. BECAUSE THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS PER SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE CHANCE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THEN THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * PLEASANT/DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID FRI NIGHT/SAT * BECOMING UNSETTLED LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO PROVIDE DRIER AND LESS HUMID MID SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER AIR PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL TO ABOUT -3 SD BELOW OVER THIS REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY BUT MORE LIKELY MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THUS WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DAILY DETAILS... FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VERY PLEASANT DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION. WEAK PGRAD WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES KEEPING THE COASTLINE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE U50S TO L60S AND HIGHS 80-85. SUN/MON/TUE....WEATHER BECOMES UNSETTLED AS UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ARRIVING SUN. REMAINDER OF THE GUID IS SLOWER KEEPING DRY WEATHER HERE UNTIL NIGHTFALL/SUN EVENING. HIGHER RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS COMES MON AND TUE AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION MON AND TUE WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TROUGH MAY HAVE ENOUGH AMPLIFICATION TO BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW FOR GOOD ATLC INFLOW YIELDING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ALSO TURNING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS PERIOD AS WELL. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID/UPR LVL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MOST EXCEPT ACK THIS EVENING. THROUGH TONIGHT... VFR FOR MOST. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE ACK...WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN FOG UNTIL LATE. ALSO...SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ACK. OTHERWISE...LIGHT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT W WINDS ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... VFR. SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS. START TIME IS LIKELY 15Z-17Z. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY TAKE UNTIL 18Z-20Z TO START THIS TODAY. SHOULD START 14-15Z TOMORROW. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON AS RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DURING BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY WEATHER ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25 KT. SCA CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD DROP LATE THIS MORNING AS ROUGH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WEAKENS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IDEAL BOATING WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY/DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE WATERS. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASING. SSW WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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