Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 140727 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 327 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings dry weather through today. Moisture well ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for the risk of some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions follow for Wednesday. A warm front approaches Thursday and Friday, bringing increasing clouds, and scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms. Showers may linger into Saturday as low pressure approaches.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High confidence. High pressure maintains dry weather across our region today. Light winds will permit the development of seabreezes along both coasts. Partly cloudy at worst, mainly from high level clouds. Some diurnal clouds, mainly across the higher terrain of central and western MA. Near normal temperatures expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Moderate confidence. Southerly return flow will increase humidity tonight. A nearly stationary front south of New England may move close enough to trigger some showers after midnight as a mid level shortwave passes by. The greatest risk will be towards Nantucket. Clouds continue to increase. Early Tuesday should be dry across most of the region. Will need to monitor the northward progress of a stalled front. The closer this front gets to our region, the closer deeper moisture associated with Tropical Storm Gert may get. Will keep at least a slight risk of showers across Nantucket Tuesday morning. Another potent mid level shortwave arrives during the afternoon. Enough ingredients in place where thunderstorms would be a concern. However, the greatest risk appears to be north of our region at this time. With the timing being in the afternoon, the greatest risk for thunderstorms will be across the interior. Convection subsides around sunset. Near normal temperatures through this period.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Details... Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Cold front sinking out of Canada pushes southward thru southern New England during Wednesday, bringing a dry airmass into the region. Moisture is quite limited even to start off the day, so anticipating this frontal passage to be dry. High pressure prevails Wednesday night, may see increasing clouds late. There is also a chance for rip currents Wed-Thu along south coastal MA/RI as well due to swell from TD8 and its projected forecast. Thursday thru Friday...Low to moderate confidence. Expect increasing clouds Thursday as low pressure approaches. However there is considerable model differences with respect to the timing of this system`s approach and subsequent timing on chances for rainfall. 12Z ECWMF is quicker with the surface low, tracking it over New England during Thu. Hence the ECWMF brings a soaking rainfall to our area Thu-Thu night. 12Z GFS and the 12Z GFS ensemble mean are much slower with the low`s approach, with high pressure to the east delaying deeper moisture and precip arrival until Thu night/Fri. Plan to go with chance pops for Thu into Fri with this forecast package, with highest pops Thu night. As low pressure nears, PWATs increase to near 2 inches and low instability brings the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Saturday-Sunday...Low confidence. Much uncertainty for next weekend regarding timing of possible showers, but do not anticipate the weekend will be a washout. Model consensus brings the better chance for showers on Saturday, drier for Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/... Today...High confidence. VFR. Seabreeze along the coasts from mid morning through the afternoon. Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR/IFR cigs developing across the southern terminals as low level moisture streams in from the south. Additional IFR cigs possible is late night fog. MVFR conditions possible in scattered -TSRA/SHRA Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence. Tue Night-Thu...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions into Thu. May see areas of MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in late night/early morning fog each night. Scattered showers with local MVFR conditions from W-E during Thursday. Thu night-Fri...Low confidence. A period of rain/showers is possible within this timeframe. East winds could produce a period of MVFR/IFR clouds/vsbys with patchy fog.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence. Winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Tuesday. Seabreezes on both coasts from mid morning into this evening. Increasing south flow tonight into Tuesday. Some showers possible around Nantucket late tonight into Tuesday morning. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence. Winds expected to remain below small craft criteria through Thursday. Seas probably remain at 4 ft or less Wed-Thu. However, there is a chance for increasing swells along south coastal MA/RI Wed-Thu due to Tropical Storm Gert, which should remain well south of the area. There is also a chance for rip currents Wed-Thu along south coastal MA/RI as well. Return of patchy late night/early morning fog across most waters Tue and Wed nights. Scattered showers are possible Thu-Thu night. During Fri an approaching low pressure system may allow for seas and E/NE winds to increase to SCA thresholds. Reduced visibility possible in scattered showers.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/NMB NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...Belk/NMB MARINE...Belk/NMB

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