Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 300531 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 131 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE... NUMEROUS MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD SNE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO RAISED TEMPS A BIT. STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S BOS/PVD AND CAPE/ISLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK * BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK * MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL DETAILS... ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER. OUTSIDE OF ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS. THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI. BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. TODAY... VFR WITH MID LEVEL CIGS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. MONDAY...VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD BE GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...KJC/FRANK MARINE...FRANK/RLG

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