Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 311807 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 207 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN TIER OF MA*** 2 PM UPDATE... POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALBANY UP THROUGH VT...THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BAND WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF MA. CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KTS. THE STORMS COULD BRING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE PROBABLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...AS CAPE AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE. MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN WARMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE SHORT WAVE PULLS TO THE NORTH. SO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S. FRIDAY... A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95. SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THIS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWEHRE. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BRIEF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE BRIEFLY MOVED INTO KBOS EARLIER TODAY...SW WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF WIND SHIFTS TO THE SE PRIOR TO SUNSET. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/NMB SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/NMB MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG/NMB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.