Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 252022 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 422 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY...COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER OVER THE LONG WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... *** PVD HITS 90 AT 312 PM TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 7/8/14 *** PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A DEEP COLUMN OF SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. LATE DAY SEABREEZES WILL ERODE LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY WITH SUNSET PER RADIATIONAL COOLING. NOT QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT BUT STILL MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN AREAS WILL SEE MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S...WITH M60S IN THE URBAN CENTERS. NEVERTHELESS VERY COMFORTABLE. THIS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICAL INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LOW LYING SECTIONS OF EASTERN MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TUESDAY... MORE OF THE SAME...DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TO THE COAST BY DAYS END. THIS PROVIDES ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SSW IN THE AFTERNOON. AUG SUN CONTINUES TO MODIFY AIRMASS WITH BOTH 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING BY A FEW DEGS. THIS SUGGEST MU80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE MORE COMMON TOMORROW AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. SSW WINDS WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTAL AREAS/BEACHES IN THE 75 TO 80 DEG RANGE. DEW PTS STILL REASONABLE IN THE U50S TO L60S. NONETHELESS ANOTHER FABULOUS DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT... EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY ERODE WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES. ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. AREAS OF FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WSW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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* HIGHLIGHTS... -CHANCES OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY -SEASONABLE WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WED AND WED NIGHT... WEDESDAY BRINGS THE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE WORKWEEK...WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE THRU SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED INTO WED EVENING. 12Z NAM IS MORE ROBUST ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG...SO AT THIS TIME CONTINUING TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL ALSO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...YIELDING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUBSIDENCE. BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...BUT INCREASING SWELLS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI AREA COULD AFFECT SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES AS EARLY AS WED/WED NIGHT. THU AND THU NIGHT... WITH FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N/W...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. WILL LIKELY BE SWELLS/ROUGH SURF/RIP CURRENT RISK ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT CRISTOBAL. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. EXPECT SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH MILDER AIR RETURNING LATE UNDER S/SE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTETNIAL FOR SLOWING OF THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND WITH OPEN WAVE OR WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SAT AFTN THRU SUN NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO LABOR DAY /12Z ECMWF/...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 2 PM UPDATE... VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF EASTERN MA LATE TONIGHT. MORE OF THE SAME TUE AND TUE NIGHT INCLUDING NEAR SHORE TERMINALS WITH LATE MORNING SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SEA BREEZE TUE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH SAT... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT CIGS ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND PRECIP ENDING. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY NW FLOW THURSDAY TURNING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. S WINDS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE INTERIOR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EAST SWELLS OF 3-4 FT CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES HOVERS OVER THE AREA. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER NEAR SHORE LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. ANY LARGE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SHOULD NOT ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL WED. OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NE OUT TO SEA WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. SUBSEQUENT SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THU. BREEZY SW WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NW WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIMINISHING SWELL EXPECTED ON FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THE ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER. WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB MARINE...NOCERA/NMB

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