Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 262012 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 412 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... YIELDING A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS...BUT MILD AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...CONTINUING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... 4 PM UPDATE... STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS NOW OFFSHORE. HOWEVER STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER NY STATE/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS INITIATING T-STORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND NYC...MOVING ESE. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NY STATE. SO OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE A DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING. T-STORMS OVER NYC AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ESE TOWARD HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS/WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING. THIS NORTHERLY LAND TRAJECTORY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY DRIZZLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SO TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S WILL THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO THIS EVENING. AS SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EJECTS OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ON BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING 8 PM TO 11 PM WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS OR WINDS DECOUPLING SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MOS GUID OVER 2METER TEMPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING MINS IN THE U20S AND L30S BY DAYBREAK WED. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST CT...NORTHERN RI ...SOUTHEAST MA AND EASTERN MA WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT SOUTHERN RI AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AS TEMPS THERE MORE MARGINAL GIVEN CLOUD DEPARTURE WILL BE SLOWER. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE BOSTON GIVEN URBAN AREAS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MU30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WED ... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW WITH COLUMN FAIRLY DRY PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND XSECTIONS. HOWEVER COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD SCATTERED DECORATIVE CU TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING TOMORROW WITH BLYR EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 800 MB. HOWEVER TEMPS ALOFT /850 MB/ ONLY ABOUT -2C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S. ALTHOUGH IT WILL FEEL MILD GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH IT BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY/S HIGHS. WEAK PGRAD WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SEASBREEZES. WED NIGHT ... DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY NIGHT. THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MOS TEMPS OVER THE WARMER 2 METER MODEL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW...STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK...FINALLY PERMITTING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR LABRADOR TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND HIGHER HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SHOULD BE EXTEND JUST ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO KEEP A LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. SEABREEZES STILL LIKELY BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE CORE OF A HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR OUR REGION. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY PERMIT SOME SHOWERS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ASPECT TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. A LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH INTO OUR REGION. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE MARITIMES...THIS WILL BE A STRUGGLE. THE FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON THE LOCATION OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL DATA SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BY. BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A SLOWER TIMING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THRU 00Z...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAIN SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN NOW OFF THE COAST. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. PERSISTENCE A GOOD FORECAST THRU 00Z. SO EXPECT A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN MA. AFTER 00Z...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING TREND FROM MVFR/IFR TO MVFR 00Z-03Z WITH MUCH OF THE REGION VFR BY 06Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. WED...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND SEABREEZES TRACK. VFR WITH LIGHT WEST WIND. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THESE BOUNDARIES TRACK AS DEEP BLYR MAY MIX DOWN WEST WINDS 10-15 KT...PRECLUDING SEABREEZES FROM TRACKING TOO FAR INLAND. WED NIGHT...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. VFR...DRY AND LIGHT WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND DURATION OF SEABREEZE TOMORROW/WED. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT ... NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THRU ABOUT 11 PM AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS GIVEN THE LONG WIND FETCH. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE NY WATERS MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN RI OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE JUST SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING LATE EVENING AND ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WED AND WED NIGHT ... LIGHT WINDS GIVEN WEAK PRES GRADIENT. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. MAINLY E/NE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ003-004. MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-014- 016>019. RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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