Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 011951 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE MASS PIKE. TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THURSDAY... WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT... WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW. REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH. OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL. THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY DEEP/SHARP. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE. TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING. THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING THE S COAST AND CAPE COD. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS. THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY. THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG

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