Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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445 FXUS61 KBOX 021344 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 945 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ***BAND OF SHOWERS SWEEPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE*** 945 AM UPDATE... NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST NY...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK A FEW MAY SURVIVE INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT WITH SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME MORE DRIZZLE. AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES. HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG IT. NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL * MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW. DETAILS... TUE NIGHT... LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 940 AM UPDATE... ONLY ADDITION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS WE ARE WATCHING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY. LOW RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SURVIVING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THROUGH 16Z WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT BEST...A FEW BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA. SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG. LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED T-STORM THROUGH 16Z. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/KJC MARINE...KJC/RLG

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