Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 250136 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 936 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. DRY...COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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10 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. SKIES MAINLY SKC AT THE MOMENT...BUT MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MARINE CLOUDS OFF OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND DO SEE SOME SLIDING SW FROM S OF PENOBSCOT BAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE AS THEY MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND BY PROXY MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DIPS OVERNIGHT FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS. EITHER WAY...LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM WHERE THE COASTAL CLOUD THREAT RESIDES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TONIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A FEW CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS E NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S WITH LOW PROB OF A FEW UPPER 40S IN NW MA AND SW NH. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY... SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RISING HEIGHTS. MOSUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 14C BY 18Z. HIGH WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S. MONDAY NIGHT... MORE OF THE SAME WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MILDER AS AIRMASS MODERATES WITH MINS RANGING FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY * COLD FRONT BRINGS LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AND EVENING * DRY...COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT NEXT SUNDAY. WHILE TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DOES REMAIN A CONCERN...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING IT OUT TO SEA LONG BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPPRESSIVE...AFTER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT. THESE WILL BE THE BEST BEACH DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH NO SEABREEZE EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DECENT INSTABILITY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES START TO WARM AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOLER...WETTER WEATHER. DURING THIS PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...IT MAY GENERATE HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...WITH THE ONLY CAVEAT BEING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. NE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG BOTH COASTS MONDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE USUAL SPOTS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S/SW MON. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING SEAS AS SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL REACHES THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. AT THIS POINT AM ONLY LOOKING AT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON CRISTOBALS EVENTUAL TRACK. MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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