Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 171844 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 244 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN RI AND SE MA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IT MAY TURN UNSETTLED THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS HAS REALLY LIMITED THE EXTENT OF THESE. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP MAINLY ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS...SB CAPE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING OFFSHORE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE CITIES WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. A COOL AUTUMN LIKE NIGHT EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE GOOD RADIATORS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE/WED AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND * DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI OVERVIEW... NOT THE MOST SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN SIGHT. FAIRLY BLOCKY PATTERN FOR AUGUST PERSISTS...WHICH INITIALLY HELPS SUPPRESS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR S TUE-WED BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THU-FRI BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE E OF NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE ON NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... TUE INTO WED... COMBINATION OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... WHICH WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF RAINFALL WELL TO OUR S. WHILE MOST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM GREAT LAKES STAYS TO OUR N AND W...FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REACH W NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY WED OR MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT. THU INTO FRI... RIDGING PUSHES OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND EVEN TRIES TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY. LIFT AND PRESENCE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS SHOWN BY 12Z GFS...BUT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD COUNTERACT AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT AWAY FROM COAST AND MORE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF W NEW ENGLAND. KEPT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTYIN DETAILS WITH HIGHER VALUES W. TROUGH OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER MARITIMES...BUT E/NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF REGION. EXPECT TO SEE FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS FRI BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN THU. NEXT WEEKEND... UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. STILL LOOKING AT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH E/NE FLOW PREVAILING. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO RI AND EASTERN MA. LOW RISK OF A FEW -TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION AROUND 23Z...ENDING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM. TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A LIGHT NW WIND. MONDAY....VFR AND DRY WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING KBOS. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. LOW RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORM SOUTH OF LOGAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT E/NE FLOW. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT BY THU/FRI ON OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE COD AS WINDS COME CLOSE TO 20KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS THU INTO FRI ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH PERIOD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...RLG/JWD MARINE...RLG/JWD

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