Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 242037 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 337 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BUT ALSO RAPIDLY MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL HEAD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ANTICIPATE STEPPING DOWN OR TAKING DOWN ALL HEADLINES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. STILL HAVE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION AND A BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS SE ZONES FOR 2-3 HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A RELATED CONCERN IS THAT ANTICIPATE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING MOST ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LAST BAND OF SNOW PASSES THROUGH. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO KEEP WARNINGS POSTED WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION BUT SEE A RISK OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR A SHORT TIME IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS BEFORE IMPROVING FOR GOOD. ANTICIPATE RISK OF ANY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER PAST BY 7 OR 8 PM...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE THAT MAY NEED TO BE MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LATER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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ANTICIPATE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OVER LAND GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY * WINTER STORM "MAY" BE BACK ON THE TABLE LATE MON/TUE - LOW CONFIDENCE * VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI DETAILS... MONDAY AND TUESDAY... VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE NOW STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH CAPTURES LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN AND THE FIRST TO SHOW IT. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS STILL WAY SOUTHEAST AND PRETTY MUCH A MISS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS WAS JUST A HICCUP OR IF THE ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS ARE ONTO SOMETHING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS IF WE GET A WINTER STORM OR NOT...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE ISLANDS WITH VERY COLD NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE...WHEN HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY... IF WE DO END UP WITH THAT WINTER STORM...IT WOULD HAVE COME TO AN END BY EARLY WED. STILL WILL BE VERY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EARLY WED MORNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR. SOME MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST BY FRI...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW TO THE NW OF A BOS-IJD LINE...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THAT LINE...AND RAIN TO THE SE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRPORTS IN EASTERN MA AND RI MAY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY ICE UP AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT LIKELY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR W TO E 00Z TO 02Z. NW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS. NW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW 20Z TO 22Z WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WILL CAUSE UNTREATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY. BECOMING VFR AFTER ABOUT 01Z. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW ENDING BY AROUND 23Z. BECOMING VFR AFTER 00Z OR 01Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER 22Z. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION LATE MON INTO TUE. HIGHEST RISK SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COAST DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE STORM. WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THE STORM LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE N AND NW LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THEN VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO ABOUT 15 FT ON THE OUTER SE WATERS TONIGHT. SUNDAY...NW GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT MAY PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS UNTIL MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOW CLOSE THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE STRONG SCA TO NORTHEAST GALE GUSTS LATE MON/TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS. IF COASTAL LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF...SEAS OF 20+ FEET AND STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW LATE MON INTO TUE. MAY HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEFT OVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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OFFSHORE WINDS AND A LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A FLOOD STAGE WOULD BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND THE NANTUCKET HARBOR AREA. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002- 003-008-009-017>021. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-010>016-026. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MAZ022-024. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002>007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/THOMPSON NEAR TERM...THOMPSON SHORT TERM...THOMPSON LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/THOMPSON MARINE...FRANK/THOMPSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

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