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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBOX 141923 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 323 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE SUNSET...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDE SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --330 PM UPDATE... THROUGH 8 PM... SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND SECONDARY TROUGH. MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES SB CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS CONVECTION ALSO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER H5 TEMPS WHICH IS YIELDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A HEALTHY CU FIELD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN VT-MA-CT. AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING...EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO FIRE ACROSS THE BERKS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT. BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS GEORGES BANK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SEAWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM NE TO NW AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE EAST COAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND A RIP CURRENT RISK FOR EAST FACING BEACHES OF MASSACHUSETTS. NE WIND WAVES WILL YIELD ROUGH SURF AND STRONG RIPS ACROSS EASTERN MA BEACHES ESPECIALLY WITH OCEAN EXPOSURE AND EAST FACING. AFTER 8 PM... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ERODE WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEHIND SECONDARY TROUGH DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS ABOUT 3-5 DEGS COOLER THAN CLIMO. MODEST NW PGRADIENT WILL PERSIST SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE ALONG THE COAST/ISLANDS AND THE URBAN AREAS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --SATURDAY... MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND MEAN RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANTICYCLONE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DRYING THE COLUMN. THUS EXPECTING ABUNDANCE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO 75-80! WHILE THESE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE FOR JUNE 15TH...IT WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE RECENT DAMP/COOL WEATHER. REAL NICE DAY...ENJOY! JUST AS WARM AT THE BEACHES GIVEN WNW WINDS. BEWARE OF SOME LEFTOVER ROUGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES...BOTH SOUTH AND EAST COAST GIVEN SE SWELLS. WIND WAVES AND SWELLS APPEAR TO ERODE/DECAY FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN SOURCE REGION OF SWELLS WAS OVER AND NEAR NEW ENGLAND /CLOSE TO SHORE VERSUS WELL OFFSHORE/. IF SWELLS WERE FROM DISTANT OCEAN STORM WAVE ENERGY WOULD BE MORE LONG LIVED. THUS WHILE SURF MAY BE SOMEWHAT ROUGH TOMORROW ALONG WITH MODEST RIP CURRENTS...THINK WE WILL FALL SHORT OF HIGH SURF AND/OR HIGH RISK CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WAVE ENERGY DISSIPATES. SAT NIGHT... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. NOT AS COOL AS AIRMSS MODIFIES ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS... * SEASONABLE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY * UNSETTLED AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE * MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WED AND THU OVERVIEW... WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING THE SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS...SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY AND/OR SUN NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE COMING LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON...WITH ECMWF FOCUSING THE RAIN MORE DURING SUN NIGHT. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND WE OPTED FOR CHC POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE UNFAVORABLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS. MONDAY... IT APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY MAY SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GT LAKES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO NEW ENG. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C WHICH SUPPORTS MAXES 80-85 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE COAST. MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND INDICATES A STRONGER FROPA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 2 PM UPDATE... OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. VFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. NEW AREA OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NY STATE WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 00Z... THREATENING KBDL. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED WITH ISOLATED TSTM. LOW TOP STORMS. RI AND EASTERN MA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO NW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TONIGHT...VFR AND ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. DISREGARDED LOWER VSBYS FROM MET AND MAV OVERNIGHT AS DRY NW WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR VSBYS. SAT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER. WEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GO SW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WEST WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEABREEZE SAT. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SCT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTM THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PATCHY IFR COASTAL FOG SUN NIGHT. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES IN -SHRA/FG. && .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... GALES HAVE DIMINISHED AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO WNW BEHIND PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. ISOLATE SHOWER POSSIBLE WESTERN/SOUTHERN WATERS. EAST WIND WAVES TRANSITION TO SWELLS. VSBY REMAINS GOOD. SAT... HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION PROVIDES DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNW WINDS 10-15KT WITH G20 NEAR SHORE. E SWELLS LINGER ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SAT NIGHT... DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAILS. WINDS SHIFT TO SW AS HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF MID ATLC REGION. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY. A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL SW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .HYDROLOGY...-- Changed Discussion --DESPITE RAIN DEPARTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST CT/RI AND EASTERN MA AS RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN IN FLOOD AND CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY. THEREFORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS ON LARGER RIVERS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF LOWER CONNECTICUT... FARMINGTON...CHARLES AND PAWTUXET RIVERS. SMALLER STREAMS IN HARTFORD COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING...WHILE PAWCATUCK IN SOUTHERN RI WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ004. MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ005>007-012>021. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-024. NH...NONE. RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA MARINE...KJC/NOCERA HYDROLOGY...
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