Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 302312 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 712 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CT...WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BUT MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... BEFORE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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710 PM UPDATE... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN A WEAKENED FORM INTO PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN A SPOT SPRINKLE/SHOWER OR TWO BY THE TIME ACTIVITY REACHES SOUTHEAST MA. OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS SEEM TO STRUGGLE. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO THE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO BRINGS WARMER 850MB TEMPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE START TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE OUT A BIT MORE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST * UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY * A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL * MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU DETAILS... ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90. THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CT EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...BUT COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND IN A WEAKENED FORM. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIT THE BDL TERMINAL BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD BE GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...RLG/FRANK

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