Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 241809 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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100 PM UPDATE... DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND 0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25 MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40 KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... * PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN * COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND * LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF THE ENVELOPE. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH. TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST. THIS IS DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH. WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET WEATHER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z. TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG AWAY. TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW/RAIN. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026. NH...NONE. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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