Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291112 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 712 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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712 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BROUGHT NEAR-TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG THE COASTLINES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TOMORROW... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS. CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DETAILS... SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13-15Z. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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