Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 050544 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 144 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO THIS WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... SKIES HAVE CLEARED EVEN ACROSS SE MA WHERE PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. NOTING SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING WINDS BELOW 10 KT. THEREFORE...WITH DWPTS SLOWLY DECLINING INTO THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S...STILL ON TRACK FOR A COOL AND REFRESHING FRIDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT COOLER UPPER 40S IN COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND INTERIOR E MA. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL PRONE LOCATIONS FOR RADIATION FOG. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT BUILDS OVER SNE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. SUNNY DAYS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S SAT WITH COASTAL SEABREEZES...POSSIBLY WARMING INTO LOWER 80S CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE MA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXES INTO THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTH DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK * DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. 04/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WE STILL EXPECT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE CAN SEE A SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NE WINDS ASSISTED BY SEA BREEZES TODAY. SW WINDS WITH SEA BREEZES SUN. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE DEVELOPING BY 16Z. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY-TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 730 PM UPDATE... TONIGHT...NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DROPPED MOST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY THIS EVENING. LATEST BUOY REPORTS STILL SHOWING SEAS LINGERING ABOUT 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER RI COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SAT INTO SUN...HIGH PRES WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DOODY MARINE...BELK/KJC

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