Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 100614 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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110 AM UPDATE... CURRENT TEMPS RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY CLIMB A A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUDS INCREASE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TOWARD 12Z AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE BY 12Z WITH TOTAL TOTALS REACHING BETWEEN 55 AND 60 ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 C/KM. THERE LOOKS TO BE A MESO- LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OF US TODAY. EARLIER GUIDANCE HINTED AT A HIGHER RISK OF THIS AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE BACKING AWAY FROM THIS WITH THIS MESO-LOW TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH. STILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY THOUGH BECAUSE IF IT DOES INTERACT WITH THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...ITS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS PICKUP A QUICK 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY GIVEN MODEL TRENDS BUT STILL CAN/T COMPLETELY THROW IN THE TOWEL ON THIS ONE. REGARDLESS OF THIS MESO-LOW...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVIER SQUALLS TODAY. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WILL COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MOISTURE AND THE INSTABILITY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN FACT...THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... *** SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT AND THE SOUTH COAST *** WEDNESDAY ... IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER OR JUST OF THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP NICELY AS A PV ANOMALY ON THE TROPOPAUSE. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS MESOSCALE ATTRIBUTES COME INTO PLAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC /6.5C-KM/ AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8C/KM ALONG WITH TT NEARING 60! FURTHERMORE THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED...POTENTIALLY OFFERING A STRONG RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUID IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIMULATING THESE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE 12Z GFS IS MOST ROBUST BUT MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MOST INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS LONG ISLAND NY AND THEN MOVE ENE OVER BID-MVY AND POSSIBLY ONTO THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THUS GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE BURST IN THE MORNING OVER WESTERN CT-MA. WHILE POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE IMPACT WOULD RESULT FROM A QUICK 1-2" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THE GFS SIMULATION IS CORRECT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-4" ARE POSSIBLE. TIMELINE...SNOW SHOWERS APPROACH WESTERN CT-MA INCLUDING HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD AROUND 12Z...THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION 15Z-18Z AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI/EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON- PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR TIL 21Z. HENCE POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE DAY COMMUTE HERE. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN PUBLIC AWARENESS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND ALSO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT * MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND * MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DIFFERENCES AND CHALLENGES COME IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... INCLUDING SHORTWAVES...AS WELL AS THE MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING LOW PRESSURE OUT OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE FRONT BEING SOME CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR THURSDAY. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY AND THE COLDER AIR IS YET TO COME. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INSTEAD THE COLD WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE...ALONG WITH SOME BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO EVEN 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO BE HAD...09/12Z EPS PROBABILITIES HAVE AN OVER 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND OVER 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES! THUS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES COUPLED WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...EVEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LOOKING AT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WEEKEND TO BUNDLE UP AND STAY INDOORS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WHETHER IT IS RAIN OR SNOW IS UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL STORM. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MAINLY MVFR AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY WORK INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT...A FEW HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/NORTHERN CT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. CHANCE OF - SHSN. EXPECTED ACCUMULATION LESS THAN TWO INCHES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT ... LIGHT WINDS BUT LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS OF MA AND RI. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER MAINLY DRY AND GOOD VSBY. WED ... LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. VSBY MAY LOWER BELOW 1 MILE IN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DEFINITE...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235- 237-250-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/RLG

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