Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 300718 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 318 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and warm weather is on tap for the region today. A cold front moves over the region on Friday into early Saturday, a few thunderstorms are possible. High pressure builds in behind the front and prevails through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 155 am update... Cold front still hung up along the southeast New England coast. This has allowed areas of fog to develop across portions of southern RI/SE MA, which was locally dense in spots. Widespread dense fog continued to affect MVY and ACK, where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 6 am. Should see conditions improve near daybreak, as cold front slowly pushes southeast allowing somewhat drier air to work in from the northwest. Other areas of very localized ground fog may develop in the typically prone locations toward daybreak, but will be short-lived. Low temps will mainly be in upper 50s to the lower 60s, except middle 60s in the urban heat island of Boston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Dry weather expected through this period, although our region will only be on the edge of a high pressure to our south. The main limitation will be the lack of moisture. Seasonable temperatures expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * Showers/thunderstorms linger into Friday night * Cooler temps Saturday, then increasing temps through next week * High pressure brings dry weather for much of next week Overview...Quiet pattern continues through next week starting with upper level ridging in the center of the country and upper troughs in the Pacific NW and the NE. The upper level pattern flattens out a bit by Monday with weak ridging continuing across the middle of the country. Models are in good agreement on the synoptic pattern and will use a blend of available guidance for this forecast. A cold front moves through southern New England Friday night with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms. Then high pressure builds into the region for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Low pressure passes south of southern New England Tuesday and Wednesday, but quiet weather will continue for the region. Temperatures...Aside from slightly cooler temperatures Saturday, behind the cold front, temperatures will gradually warm into next week. By the middle of next week, temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Precipitation...The only shot of rain in the long term forecast is showers and thunderstorms with the cold front Friday night. Timing of the front has sped up since last night, so expect the bulk of the storms to be Friday afternoon, then lingering into Friday night. Otherwise, looking at a dry forecast through the middle of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/... Today...High confidence. IFR-LIFR conditions across the Cape/Islands should burn off between 8z and 11z, but may persist a bit longer across the ACK terminal. Otherwise, VFR today with sea breezes developing by early afternoon along the immediate eastern MA coast by afternoon. Tonight...High confidence in VFR conditions. May see some localized patchy fog develop late in the typically prone locations. Friday...Moderate confidence. A broken deck of clouds should overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Greatest risk for MVFR CIGS will be south of the MA turnpike. Potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms should increase as the day wears on, but uncertainty on timing and locations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF today and tonight. ESE sea breeze should kick in by early afternoon. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF today and tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Saturday...High confidence. Any lingering MVFR conditions will improve to VFR quickly Saturday morning. Sunday and Monday...High confidence. VFR. Low probability of sea breezes developing each afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds through this period. Main concern will be for areas of fog, which may be locally dense at times tonight across the southern waters. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... High confidence. Mainly quiet boating weather expected. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria throughout the period. However, they will increase as a cold front crosses over the coastal waters Friday night. This will result in showers and thunderstorms, which will reduce visibilities at times.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday night. However, widespread precipitation looks to be nil over the next 7 days. High pressure and dry conditions appear to take hold of the region Saturday, lasting through the middle of next week. Specifics are still too hard to nail down, but it looks like the area will be less humid and a bit cooler but dry during this time frame. RH values could drop close to 30 percent between Sun into Wed. Winds overall appear to be light during this period.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MAZ023-024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/RLG NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...Frank/RLG MARINE...Frank/RLG FIRE WEATHER...Staff

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