Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291122 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 722 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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720 AM UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WILL BE EXITING DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL RESULT IN MOCLDY SKIES IN THE INTERIOR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS ROBUST. HIGHS WILL REACH THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 60S CT VALLEY. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH COAST. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RADIATING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON * DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS * MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU OVERVIEW... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU. SAT NIGHT... HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST. FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT. SUN INTO MON... MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. TUE INTO WED... WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES. THU... LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS. SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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