Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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332 FXUS61 KBOX 131725 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1225 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE IS THEN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF REGION ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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*/ HIGHLIGHTS... * ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A RAPID FALL IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING 1230 PM UPDATE... TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT HAVING MOSTLY SWEPT THROUGH S NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN IS FOR THE MOST PART UNCHANGED...WINDS ENHANCING PARENT WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTMAX DIGGING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ROUGHLY 1-2 KFT ALOFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS COMBINATION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SE CANADA. WILL BE WATCHING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FROM THE MULTITUDE OF WSR-88D RADARS ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING FOR INDICATIONS OF FASTER WINDS. OBSERVATIONS OUT OF LONG ISLAND AS OF LATE OF 50 MPH NW-FLOW. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SUCH STRONG WINDS GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PROCEEDING. H925 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -30C ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SEEING A MIX-DOWN AND PUSH OF BREEZY ARCTIC AIR TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS GUSTS INCREASE 30 TO 40 MPH THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST ADJACENT TO THE OCEAN WATERS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 40S. WIND CHILLS WELL-BELOW ZERO ALREADY WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 BELOW ALONG THE BERKSHIRES...WITH 10 TO 20 BELOW WEST OF WORCESTER. WIND ADVISORIES WERE NOT ISSUED SINCE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE COVERED BY THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES. OTHER CONCERNS CONTINUE: SNOW SHOWERS...COLDER AIR OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NW-WINDS THERE IS THE THREAT FOR TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER CAPE. CONTINUED THINKING OF A TRACE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MARINE...INCREASING NW-WINDS RESULTS IN BUILDING SEAS. COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR BUILDING S PRESENTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. IN ADDITION AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE AVERAGING IN THE LOW-40S...WILL SEE AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WHICH WILL RESULT IN ARCTIC SEA SMOKE. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 10 FEET. SEE MORE IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING * COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 2004 APPEAR LIKELY IN BOSTON AND WORCESTER BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TONIGHT... BRUTAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -30C BY 6Z WHICH IS EXTREMELY RARE FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND EXTREME COLD WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 BELOW ZERO. IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT BOTH BOSTON AND WORCESTER WILL RECORD THEIR LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN MORE THAN A DECADE. WE ARE GOING WITH A LOW OF 6 BELOW ZERO IN BOSTON AND 12 BELOW IN WORCESTER... BOTH OF WHICH WOULD BE THE COLDEST SINCE JANUARY OF 2004! WILL DISCUSS THE CONCERN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN OUR MESOSCALE SECTION. MESOSCALE SETUP FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER- CAPE. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ARCTIC SHORTWAVE SLIDE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN. DELTA T VALUES FROM THE OCEAN TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NEAR 35C RESULTING IN OCEAN INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION OF 300 TO 310 DEGREES...WHICH NORMALLY IS TOO SHORT A FETCH FOR OCEAN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THIS IS A RARE CASE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR IT WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES WITH DEEPENING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WILL GO FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER-CAPE WITH A LOW RISK FOR 4 INCHES. WE WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO WRAP UP THE EARLY MORNING SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ALSO IS LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS EASTERN MA WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CAPE ANN/UPPER CAPE AND NANTUCKET...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE. SUNDAY... DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO IMPROVE. NONETHELESS...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *** DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING *** HIGHLIGHTS... * SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE LIKELY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING * TEMPS IN THE 50S TUE-TUE NGT W/HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... A CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AS THE INITIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK FROM THE WEEKEND DISSIPATES AND GIVES WAY TO THE SRN STREAM BRIEFLY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT LONG LIVED AS A PERSISTENT VORTEX NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER /ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST/ ARCTIC INFLUENCE AS STRONG RIDING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC INFLUENCE SHORT LIVED AS IT ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR SRN STREAM DOMINANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SO...IN OTHER WORDS...A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUCH THAT A BLEND OF THESE SOURCES SHOULD SUFFICE AS BASELINE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR THE LOW PRES PASSAGE LATE MON INTO TUE...THIS IS DUE TO ITS MORE PERSISTENT SUGGESTION OF A WESTERLY TRACK WHEN COMPARED WITH PARTICULARLY THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION. DETAILS... SUN NIGHT INTO MON... GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUN NIGHT...SO THANKFULLY NOT AS MUCH WIND TO YIELD THE BITTER WIND CHILLS OF SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A SNOWPACK AND COLD H92 TEMPS...INVERSIONS WILL STILL ALLOW SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO DROP BELOW 0F... WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE COAST MON MORNING. THE COLD START...AND CRESTING HIGH PRES WILL MEAN TEMPS ARE NOT GOING TO REBOUND AS WELL AS THEY COULD GIVEN THE H92 TEMPS APPROACH -8C BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. MON EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT... SRN STREAM LOW PRES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS W OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON TUE. GIVEN THIS HAS SRN STREAM INFLUENCE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...PRECIP PRODUCTION WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFICIENT WITH PWATS 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND A 40-50 KT LLJ. THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LIKELY TO BE SNOW THANKS TO A LEFTOVER DOME OF COLD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM ADVECTION. QPF PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER SUPPORTS ANYWHERE FROM 1-4 IN OF SNOWFALL..BUT AS MENTIONED BE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS IS ONLY AN INITIAL LOOK UNTIL TRACK/THERMAL PROFILES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. THE SNOWFALL COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR SOME FZRA/ICE DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY AS THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS AND SFC TEMPS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER...EXPECT ALL RAIN BY ABOUT SUNRISE ON TUE DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE LLJ. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE...WITH FINAL LIQUID TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. MODERATING TEMPS SUGGEST LOWS NEAR NORMAL BUT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S TO EVEN NEAR 50 BY TUE AFTERNOON. WED AND WED NIGHT... ARCTIC SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MUCH SUPPRESSED LONGWAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH BAFFIN LOW CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT...IT/S LIKELY THIS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW -SHSN THANKS TO COLD ADVECTIVE DRIVEN INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH SOME OFFSHORE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE FOR A NORMAL HIT...HENCE THE LOWER END POPS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S DUE TO THE LATE PASSAGE WED EVENING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THU AND FRI... HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED THU. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -18C AS COMPARED TO THE -30C EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. BUT THIS IS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS THU IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS. SOME WARMING EXPECTED FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E AND ALLOWS MODEST RETURN FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS BACK IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 BUT MAINLY DRY WX TO PREVAIL. NEXT WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWING THE RIDGING...W-E TRAVERSING WAVE WILL APPROACH AND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER BASED ON THE SHARPENING TROF. STILL LOT/S OF TIME HERE...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MORE ACTIVE FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEK HIGH PRES. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL VFR. SCT-BKN MVFR ACROSS OUTER CAPE WITH -SHSN. NW-WINDS INCREASING TO 25-35 KT BY EVENING. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL VFR. SCT-BKN MVFR ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WITH -SHSN. NW-GUSTS 30-40 KTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR E-COASTAL TERMINALS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 KTS OR GREATER...GUSTS 40 KTS OR GREATER. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS STRONGEST ALONG THE SHORES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SCT-BKN MVFR DISSIPATING WITH WINDS ALONG WITH -SHSN FOR OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. KBOS TERMINAL... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS THIS EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27 KTS OR GREATER...GUSTS 40 KTS OR GREATER. KBDL TERMINAL... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES YIELDS A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MON EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF IFR/MVFR...FIRST AS SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. ALL RAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING BUT GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE DAY TUE. LLWS POSSIBLE TUE AS WELL. WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF SHRA/SHSN POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. */ HIGHLIGHTS... * GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING 1230 PM UPDATE... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING S ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ROUGHLY IN THE LOW- 40S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATERS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW-ZERO ALONG THE SHORES. AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIME...WILL SEE INCREASING NW-GUSTS UP AROUND 40 KTS BY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING 8-10 FEET GENERATING THE LIKELY THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...AS WELL AS ARCTIC SEA SMOKE. GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW-SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND GUSTY NW-WINDS. POOR VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION. A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND FREEZING SPRAY SUBSIDES. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRES MOVES INLAND. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...BUT STRONG SMALL CRAFTS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST. WAVES REACH 8-10FT BUT THEN DISSIPATE.
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&& .CLIMATE... BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH... BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916 HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979 PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979 WORCESTER.... 8/1899 - 7/1979 BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979 RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH... BOSTON...... -3/1967 - -3/1934 - -14/1943 HARTFORD.... -7/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 - -7/1979 - -14/1943 WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943 BLUE HILL...-10/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022>024. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ020-021. RI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>004. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ005>007. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF

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