Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 211042 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 642 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A beautiful day to close out the weekend will be followed by cool and wet weather on Monday. Dry and seasonable weather expected Tuesday, but unsettled weather returns Wednesday through Friday with some showers at times. Dry and warmer weather should arrive over Memorial Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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645 am Update... Forecast on track. High pressure dominates today with plenty of sunshine and light winds, which allows for sea breezes near coast later this morning and this afternoon. Should see some increase in high clouds this afternoon. Highs top out between 70 and 75 inland and in 60s near coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight... High pres remains east of New Eng with warm advection pattern developing overnight. This will lead to a gradual moistening of the column from west to east with some light rain developing late across western New Eng. It should remain dry in eastern half New Eng as low level dry air hangs tough given proximity of sfc high just to the east. Lows mostly in the 40s, but close to 40 across portions of eastern MA where temps will radiate in the evening before clouds thicken. Monday... Overall a cool and wet day. Surface high moves offshore with warm front lifting north toward the south coast. Deepening moisture and increasing forcing for ascent will lead to rain overspreading the region. There is a risk for a period of heavier rain and isold t-storms late in the day and evening, especially near the south coast as modest low level jet develops. However, consensus of the guidance keeps heaviest rainfall to the south where better instability. With SNE remaining north of the warm front with SE flow, it will be a cool day with temps remaining mostly in the 50s, mildest south coast and coolest interior northern MA where temps may hover around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Dry and seasonable Tue * Scattered showers at times Wed thru Fri * Starts to dry out Sat for Memorial Day Weekend Details... Monday night and Tuesday...High confidence. System departs southern New England Monday night with rain ending from west to east. Clearing takes place Tuesday morning, but will probably take awhile longer to occur near Cape Cod and Islands where we may not see clouds depart until sometime later Tuesday morning. Otherwise Tuesday looks to be the "pick of the week" as highs recover into the 60s and 70s. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes near coast. Wednesday through Friday...Moderate confidence. Global models and ensembles feature another in series of anomalous closed upper lows dropping into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, putting our region in moist southerly flow through end of week. Expect clouds to dominate all three days with scattered showers from time to time, especially during peak heating each afternoon/evening. Since core of colder air aloft should remain to our west, it won`t be unseasonably cool as highs reach 60s/70s each day. But it`s a far cry from the 90s we just experienced last week. Saturday...Low confidence. Models lift closed low into Maritimes, which may be a little fast given usual bias of doing so too quickly, so we can`t rule out clouds or even few lingering showers. Even if that`s the case, we should have dry weather for the most of the upcoming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/... Today...High confidence. VFR. Seabreezes developing along east and south coasts by midday. Tonight...High confidence. VFR with gradually lowering cigs. -RA developing in western New Eng 09-12z with low risk of MVFR. Monday...Moderate confidence. Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR as rain overspreads the region along with patchy fog. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze develops 14-15z. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday night...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. LLWS possible near Cape Cod and the Islands. Tuesday...High confidence. Lingering MVFR/IFR early near Cape Cod and the Islands, otherwise VFR with coastal sea breezes. Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in scattered showers.
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&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence. Through tonight...Light winds and seas. Winds becoming SE this afternoon and southerly tonight. Today...Light NE winds veering to SE in the afternoon. Speeds less than 15 kt. Tonight...Southerly wind less than 15 kt. Monday...Increasing S/SE winds with gusts to 20 kt developing. Low risk of a few gusts to 25 kt across south coastal waters in the afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday night...Moderate confidence. Diminishing S winds and seas as weak low pressure exits region. Tuesday...High confidence. Light winds and calm seas with weak high pressure over waters. Sea breezes expected during afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. Persistent S/SE flow will bring building seas to south coastal waters, possibly as high as 6 or 7 ft by Thu. Winds remain below 25 kt. Scattered showers expected as low pressure meanders around New England. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...KJC/JWD MARINE...KJC/JWD

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