Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270700 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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TONIGHT... HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA. FRIDAY... A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT * LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND... THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DRY FORECAST. DETAILS... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S... THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID- UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST. MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT

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