Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290746 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 346 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front exits southern New England this afternoon, which may be accompanied by a spot shower or thunderstorm. Weak high pressure brings dry weather Tuesday. Warm and humid weather returns Wednesday ahead of another cold front, which will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Large Canadian high pressure will bring dry, fall-like weather late this week into the weekend, with mild days and cool nights.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low risk of an isolated shower, and an even lower risk for a thunderstorm, this morning. The greatest risk transitions from northern MA early this morning, to eastern MA during mid morning. Most places will remain dry as instability remains limited and west-southwest winds yield weak convergence. Mid level dry air and associated subsidence rush in from the northwest to southeast, yielding dry and partly sunny conditions this afternoon. Warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s...perhaps briefly touching 90 in a few spots. However, developing west-northwest winds 10-20 mph behind this front will yield lower humidity this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure arrives tonight and Tuesday. This will mean dry weather with lower humidity. Relatively light winds will also mean good radiational cooling tonight, and likely seabreezes Tuesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Highlights... * Cold front brings the chance for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. * Dry, fall-like conditions move in for Friday and Saturday with mild days and cool nights Wednesday and Wednesday night... Another cold front begins to approach N and W Mass Wed. afternoon. However...it now appears that there will be a little more ridging over southern New England...induced by a weak tropical system off the mid-Atlantic coast...that remains well to our south. This may delay the frontal passage until Wed night...then off the coast Thursday morning. Will see warm and more humid conditions ahead of this front as SW winds pick up. Noting the PWATs do increase by Wednesday evening to around 1.6 inches, so could see some brief heavy downpours with any showers or thunderstorms across central and southern areas toward evening and overnight. Have gone with 40 to 50 percent probabilities. Highs Wed in the mid 80s. Lows Wed night in the 60s. Thursday...The ECMWF model slows the front down the most and since this has been consistent, have continued the chance of showers in southeastern sections through the morning and early afternoon. Will still see mild temperatures as the cooler air does not work into the region until later in the day. Dewpoints drop to the upper 40s and lower 50s Thursday night. Expecting lows Thursday night in the 50s except 60-65 Cape and Islands. Friday through Sunday...Large sprawling high pressure will move from the Great Lakes Fri to New England Sat...then off the coast Sunday. It will bring cool temps especially Friday and Saturday mornings, with lows reaching the upper 40s in northwest MA and lower 50s elsewhere. Highs both Fri and Sat should hold in the 70s. As the high moves off the coast, will see a slight warmup on Sunday with highs reaching the lower 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/...High Confidence. VFR most of the time today. Brief MVFR possible in isolated showers. Even lower risk for TSRA, but not impossible. VFR continues tonight and Tuesday. Light winds could lead to patchy fog later tonight, which dissipates quickly Tuesday. Seabreezes likely by mid morning Tuesday. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. May see local MVFR conditions in scattered SHRA/TSRA across N central and W Mass during the afternoon. Wednesday night-Thursday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS in scattered SHRA/TSRA as cold front crosses the region Wed night/early Thu. Scattered showers may linger until around midday Thursday before improving. Friday...High confidence. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence. Today...Light west-southwest winds this morning become west- northwest this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kt possible near shore. Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible until early afternoon, then risk shifts offshore. Southeast swells of 3-6 ft across the ocean waters. Tonight...NNW wind with high pres building in from the west. Dry weather and good visibility. Southeast swells of 3-6 ft from Gaston persist. Tuesday...Light N-NE winds shift to SE during the day. S-SE swells from Hurricane Gaston continue across the outer waters. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Wednesday...Moderate to high confidence. SW winds increase, with gusts up to 20 kt mainly across the eastern waters where seas will increase to around 5 ft. Local visibility restrictions in scattered showers/thunderstorms may approach the eastern waters Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night-Thursday...Moderate confidence. A cold front crosses the waters with scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A few showers may linger through midday across the southern waters. Winds shift from SW to W-NW by Thursday morning, then N-NE on the eastern waters Thursday afternoon. Seas will be diminishing to 3 to 4 ft. Friday...High confidence. North or north-northwest winds at 15 to 20 kt with seas between 3 and 5 ft. A marginal small craft advisory is not out of the question, especially for the outer waters.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/GAF NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...Belk/GAF MARINE...Belk/GAF

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