-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170132
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
932 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over southern New England will bring dry weather
through mid week. It will be cooler Wednesday along the coast
with sea breezes. Isolated to scattered showers across the
interior Thursday with slightly below normal temperatures. Dry
on Friday with high pressure in control. A cold front brings
another round of light rain showers late Friday through
Saturday. Turning drier Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
930 PM Update...

* Quiet overnight...light wind & lows in the 30s to lower 40s

Previous forecast is on track. A ridge of high pressure overhead
will continue to result in mainly clear skies, light/calm winds
and a good night of radiational cooling. Overnight low temps
should bottom out well down into the 30s across the normally
coolest outlying locations...to between 40 and 45 in some of the
urban centers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

The mid level ridge axis shifts directly overhead on Wednesday
leading to sunny skies for a good portion of the day and dry
weather all day. The skies will fill in with high clouds from
west to east starting mid morning, thickening and lowering
through the day ahead of a warm front. Temperatures during the
day will be quite different along the coast compared to inland
locations thanks to a seabreeze. By afternoon we expect temps in
the low to mid 50s along the coast and low to mid 60s inland.
The better plume of moisture arrives after sunset ahead of a
shortwave pushing into the eastern Great Lakes. There continue
to be considerable discrepancies amongst the guidance as to how
far east into SNE the PWAT plume pushes, but ensembles are in
agreement that the far better chance of wet weather will be over
western MA/CT where the much more moisture is present and
upslope flow into the terrain will enhance lift. The GEFS and
EPS put the chance of measurable rain over 90% in western MA/CT
and less than 30% in far eastern MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights

* Isolated to scattered showers on Thu, mainly across the
  interior, with slightly below normal temperatures.

* Dry for much of Fri with temps returning to seasonable levels.

* Cold front brings scattered showers late Fri through Sat. Mild
  temperatures return.

* The temperature roller coaster continues, with a return to near
  normal temperatures and dry weather for Sun into Tue.

Southern New England will be dealing with another mid level
omega block. This time through, we should initially be located
beneath the ridge portion of this block. Currently expecting
this mid level ridging to move off to our east towards this
weekend, leading to a transition to a broad mid level trough
early next week.

At the surface, high pressure should remain in control of our
weather into Friday morning. Thus, mainly dry weather expected,
although there could be a risk for scattered showers towards its
edges, which would be mainly across the western half of southern
New England both Thursday and Friday. A slow moving front
Saturday should continue the risk for showers, before high
pressure arrives late this weekend into early next week.

Stayed close to the NationalBlend solution for this portion of
the forecast. Can see a scenario where rainfall chances could
be lowered in later forecasts for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Calm/light NNW winds.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR. Light N winds becoming variable and remaining light during
the afternoon inland, while sea breezes develop around 10 knots
along the coast.

Wednesday night...High confidence.

VFR for all terminals to start. IFR cigs move into western MA/CT
terminals after 06z in showers. Light S winds becoming SE.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Scattered SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds through Wednesday night. No fog or
vsby issues expected.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Isolated rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW