Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 020807 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 407 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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345 AM UPDATE... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 3 AM WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND WILL ADVECT ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPS IN THE 80S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED CU/SCU. LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. BEACH FORECAST... LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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TONIGHT... SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS THIS REGION. SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MONDAY... ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION. THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY * PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS * UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK OVERVIEW... 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN SAT/SUN. DAILIES... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE 40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY. PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH. THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S. FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 2 AM UPDATE... TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER. TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA. WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS. THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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