-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY TODAY INCREASING THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. A DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PUSH COOLER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO MORE
CLOSELY ALIGN WITH THE LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STILL HANGING OUT OVER MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THERE.

WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS OF 1 PM. EXPECT THAT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH...POSSIBLY 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

WINDS RELAXING. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND BEHIND WHICH A COOLER AIRMASS SHALL FILTER IN A THE MID-
LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND COUPLED
WITH SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...FEEL EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER
CLOSER TO SHORE.

FRIDAY...

A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION. SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORE. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT /H85
TEMPERATURES +2-4C/ HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL NET AN EVENING OF
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRESENT FORECASTED LOWS RANGE AROUND
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S /WARMER CLOSER TO SHORES/. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY EVALUATE TOWARDS THE ISSUANCE OF FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPS...SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER/HUMID NEXT WEEK

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
  FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
DELIVER MARITIME HIGH PRES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH MARITIME CLOSED
LOW MOVING SEAWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TRENDING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL
SHOWERS HERE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEW ENGLAND AMONG DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES GEFS AND ECENS. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM AN EVEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR
MOS FIELDS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PATTERN SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER
DECIDED TO UNDERCUT METNAM AND MAVMOS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THEN
NEXT WEEK MODELS AGREE ON EAST COAST RIDGING BUT THEN DIFFER ON HOW
THIS RIDGE WILL ERODE/DEAMPLIFY BASED ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE HERE AND NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE.  TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM HPC GUID AND IN
HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THIS WEEKEND...

COOLER AS MARITIME HIGH PRES DESCENDS UPON EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SAT
LOOKS WARMER THAN SUN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER SAT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT
/-20C AT 500MB/ AND STRONG-HIGH MID MAY SUN ANGLE AIDING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES. ALSO SUNDAY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH IN
RESPONSE TO RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL
A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH MARITIME HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THUS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 DEGS TUE/WED. WARM DAYS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MILD NIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEW PTS.
WEATHER LOOKS DRY MON BUT POSSIBLY BECOMING SHOWERY TUE AND
ESPECIALLY WED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR.  SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
N/NW.

FRIDAY...VFR. N/NW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. LOCAL MVFR
AND/OR IFR IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY NOT PERFECTLY REFLECT
THIS OUTCOME...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE THOUGHT IN MIND OF THE NICE DAY ENCOURAGING
MORE RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES OUT ON THE WATERS. MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORES. SUCH THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN.

ELSEWHERE...ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...REMNANT SWELL AND WAVE HEIGHTS
IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. HAZARDS AND
ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...
DROPPING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NICE BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THUS
DRY WEATHER/LIGHT WINDS/SMALL WIND WAVES AND GOOD VSBY SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR TODAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH...ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO MINIMUMS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

THOUGH GREEN-UP IS UNDERWAY...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AS THERE
IS A RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED TO NOT BURN
TODAY. AFTER COMMUNICATING WITH STATE AGENCIES...IT WAS AGREED UPON
THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /RATHER THAN RED FLAG
WARNINGS/ OUTLINING THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
RANGE AROUND 40 PERCENT WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH
THRESHOLD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...