Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 272027 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 327 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA INCLUDING THE BOSTON AREA. DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE MORE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER ARRIVES SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE THOUGH A FEW MAY GRAZE THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT FOR OUR WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THIS LOW INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AFTER SUNSET...WITH OVERCAST SKIES IN PLACE...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO DROP...STAYING IN THE LOWER 30S THROUGH MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... *** ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA FROM CAPE ANN TO BOSTON TO CAPE COD *** AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS JUST WHERE DOES THIS TROUGH SET UP AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST DOES IT GET. THESE FEATURES LEAVE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS A SHIFT OF 10 TO 20 MILES TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE MOST AREAS WITHOUT SNOW. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING UP TO HALF AN INCH OF QPF ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TO JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THAT LENDS SOME LEVEL OF CERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA /3 INCHES/. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF AROUND 3 INCHES RIGHT AROUND THE BOSTON AREA. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE IN AMOUNTS IF HIGHEST QPF ENDS UP OVER LAND RATHER THAN OVER THE OCEAN...AM OPTING TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST FROM CAPE ANN SOUTH THROUGH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SYSTEMS...GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SHOPPERS AND TRAVELERS WHO MAY BE OUT AND ABOUT FRIDAY MORNING...FELT AN ADVISORY WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS WEEKEND... QUIET AND COLD EARLY SAT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT AS WEAK WAA PATTERN SETS UP. BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MILDER TEMPS...U40S TO L50S. NEXT WEEK... MILD TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 50-55 MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT AHEAD OF POLAR FRONT. MUCH COLDER TUE WITH 1040 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP. COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP AS COLD AIRMASS MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE/DISLODGE. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH MOSTLY VFR/MVFR. IFR CIGS ON THE OUTER CAPE. -SHSN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS E MA INTO RI...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS KORH-KIJD...AS INVERTED TROUGH TAKES SHAPE NEAR THE COAST AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE AT NIGHT. FRIDAY...SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG THE E COAST OF MASS...POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS ORH-IJD. PRECIP COMES TO AN END AFTER NOON AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY EVENING. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE TONIGHT IN EXACT TIMING AS PRECIP DEVELOPS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR WITH POTENTIAL MVFR LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUNDAY. MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AGL AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THOUGH A FEW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY...GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS. HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR EITHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS OR BOTH. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPDATED 430 AM FRIDAY...LOW VSBY POSSIBLE IN SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA WATERS. SNOW NEAR SHORE WITH RAIN OFFSHORE. VSBY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 FEET SATURDAY AND THEN BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY. MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SIMILAR GUSTS. SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/RLG

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