Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260646 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 246 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND TURNS OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY...COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...
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THROUGH 8 AM... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IN AN AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS WILL MEAN PATCHES OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOME OF THE LOWLANDS OF EASTERN MASS. SOME OF THE FOG PATCHES COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS LIGHT FLOW WILL FAVOR THE RESUMPTION OF SEA BREEZES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB WHERE TEMPS OF 15-16C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EVEN 90 IS POSSIBLE IN SOME NORMALLY WARM INLAND SPOTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT... RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW. BUT THAT GRADIENT AND RESULTING FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SO EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL REACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS FROPA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH FIELDS LOOK LIMITED...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO THERE IS WATER TO BE UTILIZED. TOTALS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S. THE UPPER JET DRIVING THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE TIME OF FROPA. SO WE HAVE QUESTIONS ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS. WE WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO CHANCE LEVELS IN WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT/NORTHERN RI WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...16-17C...BUT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING/MIXING. WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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* HIGHLIGHTS... -SEASONABLE WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY -POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND THU AND THU NIGHT... WITH FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N/W...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. WILL LIKELY BE SWELLS/ROUGH SURF/RIP CURRENT RISK ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT CRISTOBAL. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. EXPECT SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH MILDER AIR RETURNING LATE UNDER S/SE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTETNIAL FOR SLOWING OF THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND WITH OPEN WAVE OR WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY SAT AFTN THRU SUN NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA INTO LABOR DAY /12Z ECMWF/...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 8 AM... VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS OF EASTERN MASS. TODAY...VFR. DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON ALL COASTS. TONIGHT...VFR. SEA BREEZES SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY IFR IN FOG POSSIBLY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS DEVELOP AT 4000-6000 FEET IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY- SCATTERED MVFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SEA BREEZE TODAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS TURN NW AND PRECIP ENDS. CLEARING SKIES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY NW FLOW THURSDAY TURNING LIGHT / VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. S WINDS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE INTERIOR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EAST SWELLS OF 3-4 FT CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES HOVERS OVER THE AREA. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN FOG NEAR SHORE LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. ANY LARGE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SHOULD NOT ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL WED. OUTLOOK...WED THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NE OUT TO SEA WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. SUBSEQUENT SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON THU. BREEZY SW WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NW WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIMINISHING SWELL EXPECTED ON FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS...SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THE ROUGH SEAS MAY LINGER. WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...WTB/NMB MARINE...WTB/NMB

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