Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 091935 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 335 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... * HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS.* 2 PM UPDATE...SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NY STATE AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...MOVING EAST. AROUND AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS OF 2 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING. AS OF 17Z...SPC PLACED FAR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA /INCLUDING FAR SW NH/WESTERN MA AND NW CT/ IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. DEEP WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KTS. OUR AREA STARTED THE DAY OFF WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL INCREASE. HAVE A CHANCE POP FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST/CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS LASTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE CAPE AND ISLAND AND SOUTH COAST. SOME LOWER 90S STILL POSSIBLE. FINALLY...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION LEADING TO A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. BEACHGOERS SHOULD USE CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE WATER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AS DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE THE STORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER IT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD. TOMORROW... FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGERING SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A TAD COOLER WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARTIMES FRIDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COOLING TREND BY MIDWEEK. THE DAILIES... FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET LOCATED OVER RI/EASTERN MASS. THIS BRINGS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY EXPAND ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WILL RETAIN SOME SKY COVER WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...BUT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE 12-13C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-84. FAIR AND DRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO NEAR DEWPOINT. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG. SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARM TO 13-15C...SO MAX SFC TEMPS SHOULD TREND TOWARD THE MID 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CLOSED LOW IN FORMS IN CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PRODUCT OF ONE SHORTWAVE FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SOUTH/EAST...NUDGED ALONG BY A 95-105 KNOT JET. THE LEADING PART OF THIS JET APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER MORE HUMID AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE JET LOOKS TO BE FOCUSSED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. THE 300-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT IN OUR AREA...BUT WITH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT-NH. WE WILL BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDER...BUT MOST FAVORABLE IN THE NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER ALL AREAS MONDAY AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES...SO WE WILL EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY... COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY. UPPER JET WILL BE IN POSITION JUST TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DUE TO THE SAME AIRMASS BEING IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AS UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND. RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB AND PATCHY MOISTURE BELOW...SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE UPPER SYSTEM/S COLD POOL WILL ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ESPECIALLY WITH APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST MAY BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC. DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR EXCEPT ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SNE BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI SHOULD REFORM TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT PATCHY MVFR FOG. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLAND WHERE LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG MAY OCCUR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF KBDL DURING LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN EARLY MORNING FOG. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECEIVED REPORT OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN NANTUCKET SOUND...ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GENERALLY GUSTS TO 20 KT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND SW FLOW POTENTIALLY PUSHING ROUGH SEAS INTO BUZZARDS BAY/VINEYARD SOUND/NANTUCKET SOUND FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO 21Z. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND RI/BI SOUNDS AS LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY. QUIET BOATING WEATHER MUCH OF THE TIME WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS TREND FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/NMB SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/NMB MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/NMB

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