Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 050746 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 246 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY SLIP THROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST AND AT 1 AM STRETCHED FROM NEAR MARSHFIELD MA TO GROTON CT. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND IT...NOW BELOW FREEZING IN THE BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WERE REALLY FALLING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. HENCE THE SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. TOUGH FORECAST BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST CONTINUOUS FEED FROM THE GULF TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS...THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK... SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. THIS COULD AMOUNT TO A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW. BUT...FARTHER TO THE NORTH IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BOSTON...WORCESTER..AND SPRINGFIELD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW. NEW WPC GRAPHIC CONFIRMS THIS THINKING. FOR THOSE WONDERING ABOUT BOS SNOWFALL RECORD...WE NEED 1.9 INCHES TO TIE 1995-96. OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS ABOUT 0.7 INCHES AT BOS BUT THIS MAY NOT EVEN PAN OUT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FOCUS FOR STEADIER SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND THU MORNING WITH RAPID DRYING FROM NW BRINGING CLEARING TO INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING DAY ACROSS S COASTAL RI/MA AND CAPE COD/ISLANDS WITH LESS THAN INCH AS FAR N AS MASS PIKE. DEFINITELY COLDER DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 20S EXCEPT NEAR 30 ON CAPE AND ISLANDS. CLEARING SETS IN ACROSS ALL OF REGION THU NIGHT AS SYSTEM HEADS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH LOWS FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS CLOSER TO COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIG PICTURE... BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL CONTOUR HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE FLATTENS DURING NEXT WEEK WITH CONTOUR HEIGHTS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS SUGGESTS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. THE WEATHER-SUPPORTING FEATURES WILL BE GUIDED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES. TO MINIMIZE THIS...WE USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA. THE DAILIES... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. LIMITED JET SUPPORT WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH BLOCKS ANY INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER SATURDAY AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SAME STORY EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH WILL AGAIN BLOCK INFLOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN. AN INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF THE HIGH AND ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE IS THERE TO BE TAPPED...JUST THAT IT IS BEING PUSHED EAST OUT TO SEA TO OUR SOUTH. SO THIS IS A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH A MODERATING TREND ON TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POCKETS OF IFR PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR SPREADS N IN LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK...PROBABLY AS FAR N AS KIJD-SFZ-KPYM...MAINLY DUE TO VSBY. LIGHT RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET AND SNOW CLOSER TO S COAST AFTER 09Z WHERE LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THU. VFR CIGS FARTHER N AND W. MVFR CIGS ALSO SPREADING FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THU FROM NW TO SE...WITH CAPE COD AND ISLANDS LAST TO IMPROVE 16Z-20Z. EXPECTED GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... BOS/BAF/BDL/BED/ORH...LITTLE OR NO SNOW PVD...2 INCHES FMH/HYA...3-4 INCHES ACK...5-7 INCHES KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINTAINING SCA ON OUTER WATERS AND BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THU OR THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST AS OF 1 AM. IT WILL DROPS S OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW AND POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO SLEET AND SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT S COASTAL WATERS THU BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO REGION MAY BRING PERIOD OF 25KT NW WIND GUSTS THU NIGHT...MAINLY ON OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET. SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 5 FEET...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ023- 024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>022. RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ003>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF NEAR TERM...GAF SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/GAF MARINE...WTB/GAF

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