Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 280739 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 339 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOLLOW TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED YET THIS MORNING...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN A FEW SPOTS TO ALMOST 50 IN HARTFORD AS OF 3 AM. THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF HOURS OF DARKNESS FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP...HOWEVER...THINK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS FAR AS WE WERE EXPECTING. THEREFORE...WE HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TODAY...A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FAIRLY NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THESE CLOUDS AND THE EXTENT OF THEM WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GET OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS PROVIDED OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN QUICKLY ENOUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS LINGERING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT * COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN/MON * IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUE WITH MILDER TEMPS OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROF LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN BUT GENERAL THEME WILL BE A TREND TOWARD COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER SUN INTO MON AS BOUNDARY SETS UP TO THE SOUTH WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TUE BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MILD AND DRY WEATHER HANGS ON INTO WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY BE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. DETAILS... FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING OFF NJ COAST FRI NIGHT WILL TRIGGER AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOSTLY SW OF NEW ENG BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE NORTHERN EDGE COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF CT INTO S RI FRI EVENING. THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. TEMPS SAT WILL REACH INTO THE 60S INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. SUN INTO MON... MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO WITH OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF STEADIEST RAINFALL IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS SUN INTO MON AND POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS FURTHER. COULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR. TUE INTO WED... LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER TUE AS LOW PRES DEPARTS BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AS MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WED. GFS IS DRY AND MILD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ECMWF HAS LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE WITH RAIN THREATENING AT LEAST THE COAST WITH COOL NE FLOW. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA TONIGHT. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS TODAY AND FRIDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING STRONGER AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE EVENING PUSH. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SUNDAY INTO MON...INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON DEPENDING ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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