Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 231950 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY... BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 230 PM UPDATE... CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S. WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW * WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR. MONDAY... WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST. WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 2 PM UPDATE... HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA. LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. && .FIRE WEATHER... W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY. DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT FIRE WEATHER...

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