Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161928 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 228 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Wet weather moves offshore this evening. Blustery winds follow this departing storm system tonight and Friday. Another round of showers will push across the region Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm possible inland. Expect mild and blustery conditions in advance of the approaching cold front, followed by colder temperatures and continued brisk winds early next week. Dry conditions with temperatures near or below normal through the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest runs of many of the near term forecast models, such as the HRRR, appear to have a very good handle on the precipitation timing this afternoon. Expecting the rain across the eastern half of southern New England to move offshore by early evening, as a triple point low passes us by. Contemplating canceling the Wind Advisory early. Winds diminish briefly this evening, until the colder air arrives later. Peak gusts to this point in the afternoon have been only about 35 mph. Attention then turns to the gusty west to northwest winds and potential for additional showers to get into portions of western MA overnight. At the moment, thinking most of the showers will be farther north, closer to the better dynamics aloft. Strong upslope with the west to northwest winds would place the higher terrain of the east slopes of the Berkshires at risk, with a few showers possibly surviving past the spine of those mountains. The corresponding downslope flow would also work to keep things dry farther east. Below normal temperatures continue tonight. Wind chills mainly in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure continues to intensify over the Maritimes Friday, maintaining a gusty northwest wind. Max temperatures remain below normal, with wind chills mainly in the 30s. High pressure centered near the Carolina coast should extend in our direction Friday night. This will permit winds to become less gusty, while also keeping dry weather for most of southern New England. Thinking the peak winds and gusts will remain below Wind Advisory thresholds Friday and Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Highlights... * Showers expected late Saturday into midday Sunday * Gusty winds as a cold front moves across Sat night * Blustery and cold conditions early next week * Temperatures will run close to or below normal into the middle of next week Overview... Overall progressive mid and upper level steering flow continues across the northern hemisphere, with fast moving surface systems pushing across the region through the long term period. Expect temperatures to run mainly near or below seasonal normals, with brief readings a bit above ahead of the passing fronts. Strong low pressure moving across southern Quebec this weekend will bring another round of showers and blustery winds ahead and behind the quick moving cold front. Gusty northwest winds are likely into early next week, with wind advisories possible. Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week with temps running close to or below normal. Details... Saturday through Sunday... High pressure ridge progresses eastward as the center settles across the Carolinas during Saturday. NW winds will diminish, then shift to SW during the afternoon and begin to increase again ahead of next approaching system. There is some question on timing of onset of precip associated with approaching cold front. Have quickly increasing POPs during the day, though this will depend how fast the departing ridge moves E. Should see precip move in across most areas by around 21Z with increasing S-SW as well. Strong low pressure will cross central Quebec, with pressure down to around 980 hPa, while a secondary low forms as the occlusion moves across the region. May see SW wind gusts up to 35-40 kt Saturday evening, then will shift quickly to W as the cold front sweeps across May need Wind Advisory headlines for a time Sat night as gusts could approach 45-50 mph at times, highest along the S coast, Cape Cod and the islands. Back edge of precip should shift E Sunday morning, with drier air quickly working in. A few showers may linger into early afternoon across Cape Cod and the islands. Blustery W-NW winds continue with gusts up to 40-45 kt possible once again, so Wind headlines (Wind Advisory or even a few spots up to High Wind Warning criteria possible) may be needed again. Temps will start off close to normal, then will fall quickly by Sunday afternoon as colder air works in. May see a few lingering snow showers over parts of the E slopes of the Berkshires. Monday... A few snow showers may linger across the higher terrain of NW Mass through mid morning, otherwise expect dry conditions as high pressure sets up from W of Hudson Bay across the Great Lakes to the SE states. The tight pressure gradient between the departing low pressure across the Maritimes into Labrador and the high S and W of the region will keep temps up to 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late November. Highs will range from the 30s across the higher inland terrain to the lower 40s across the coastal plain. Tuesday and Wednesday... High pressure will progress E off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday as another weak, fast moving low moves across S central Canada. Will see a brief temperature rebound on Tuesday, close to normal readings as winds shift to SW ahead of the approaching front. However, most of the energy and moisture remains N of the region, so will remain dry for the majority of the region as it passes Tue night. Might see a few rain and/or snow showers across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Another high sets up across the central U.S. into central Canada Wednesday. More dry and cool conditions currently forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/... Through 00Z...Moderate confidence. Mix of conditions across the region this afternoon, ranging from IFR to VFR. Think we have reached the lowest conditions, with all trends pointing to improving from west to east. Tonight...High confidence. Any lingering MVFR in showers early, quickly improves to VFR along with a wind shift from SW to NW with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. A few gusts up to 35 knots possible. Friday...High confidence. VFR, dry weather and NW winds 15-25 kt with a few gusts up to 30 kt possible. Friday night...High confidence. VFR. Gusty NW winds diminish. KBOS Terminal...Timing in the TAF the main concern. High confidence in winds backing through north to the west, but when exactly. Timing still points to being about the time of the evening push. High confidence in trends. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Only moderate confidence in timing through 17/00Z. Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...Moderate to high confidence. Saturday: VFR. Brisk. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. SHRA likely. Sunday Night and Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30-35 kt.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in the details. Intensifying low pressure over the Gulf of Maine tonight will move into the Maritimes Friday. This will keep gusty NW winds across the waters through Friday. Gusts could approach gale force, particularly across the waters east of MA. Will continue the Gale Warnings. Although some of the nearshore sounds and bays might come up a little short of meeting the 34 kt criteria, it should be very close. Winds diminish Friday night, but Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely. Sunday and Sunday night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft on the outer waters. Rain showers likely Sunday. Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/EVT NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...Belk/EVT MARINE...Belk/EVT

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