Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 170803 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 403 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
430 AM UPDATE.... HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE WAVERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400AM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR RECORD. TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES TODAY RESULTING IN A MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MASS COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE. THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN * FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON * CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR RUNS. DETAILS... FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. WEDNESDAY... DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ANTICIPATED. MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT... THOMPSONVILLE HARTFORD MIDDLE HADDAM MONTAGUE NORTHAMPTON RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/THOMPSON NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...THOMPSON AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON MARINE...DUNTEN/THOMPSON HYDROLOGY...STAFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.