Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 040539 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 139 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... CORE OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PUSH E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6.0C/KM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR INDEPENDENT WEAK UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE TO FORM WHERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES LIE. MAINLY IN A LINE FROM THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA TO CAPE ANN AND ALL POINTS IN BETWEEN. THESE FEATURES ARE JUST INSTABILITY DRIVEN HENCE THEIR SHORT LIVES...BUILDING AND DYING WITHIN A FEW SCANS. NEGATIVE STRIKE COUNTS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO POSITIVE COUNTS BEFORE DYING...ADDING TO THE CONFIDENCE THAT EACH OF THESE WEAK UPDRAFTS ARE COLLAPSING ON THEMSELVES. WORTH ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS THIS EVENING AND RE-UPPING THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT SUSPECT ANY ONE OF THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE CORE OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES ITS E SHIFT AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL IN FROM THE N. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD * MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... 03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 12Z... VFR WITH SPOTS OF MVFR/IFR AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NE...AS WINDS SHIFT MAINLY NE AND INCREASE...EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND GIVE WAY TO VFR. TODAY AND TONIGHT... VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI EARLY. SOME ISOLATED FOG MAINLY IN WRN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. SAT... MAINLY VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR 5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK. LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH. FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB NEAR TERM...DOODY/NMB SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DOODY MARINE...BELK/NMB

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