Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 141929 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 329 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 PM UPDATE... BLUSTERY S-WINDS. NEAR TO EXCEEDING WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH MAINLY BEING OBSERVED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ISOLATED THREAT AS A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT WOULD LIKELY ADD LITTLE VALUE. GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS INCLUDING BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WAS A GOOD CALL. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE AND ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS OFF OUR SOUTH COAST. TUESDAY... RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU * TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND * UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND 14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE RESOLVED OVER TIME. ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS IS THE LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW. SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 18Z UPDATE... STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS. IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/. SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS. TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR. MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY THOUGH. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1030 AM UPDATE... GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET. TONIGHT... FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. TUESDAY... RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235- 237-250-254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234- 236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL MARINE...WTB/RLG HYDROLOGY...

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