Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 240505 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 105 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
105 AM UPDATE... NOT SEEING MUCH IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SE FROM CANADA...IN FACT MOST OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR N EARLY THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF ACROSS NW MA. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORIES HOWEVER. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF AREA...FROM MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO 40S/NEAR 50 ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW * WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR. MONDAY... WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST. WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH SW FLOW THROUGH MON. 20-25KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. CIGS AOA 060 LATE TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SW FLOW THROUGH TAF PERIOD. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON. STILL SEEING 25KT GUSTS ON S COASTAL BAYS/SOUNDS PER COASTAL BUOYS AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM...WHERE SCA REMAINS POSTED. EXPANDED SCA TO INCLUDE ALL BUT NARRAGANSETT BAY DUE TO EXPECTED 25KT GUSTS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY WITHIN FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...WHERE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE. GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL ALONG E MA COAST INCLUDING BOS HARBOR BUT DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS DUE TO INCREASE IN HOLIDAY RECREATIONAL TRAFFIC. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT. SW FLOW PERSISTS MON BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25 KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...JWD MARINE...JWD FIRE WEATHER...EVT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.