Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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915 FXUS61 KBOX 291830 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... * UPDATES TO NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PORTIONS ONLY... SHOWERS S/W OVERNIGHT WITH ONE MORE DAY OF QUIET WEATHER AND LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS ONLY FOLLOWED THEREAFTER BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INTO THIS EVENING... THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR N/E IS KEEPING ALL BUT SW NEW ENGLAND FAIRLY CLEAR. THOUGH ORIGINATING FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE IS ALSO KEEPING IT COOL. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK WITH E FLOW. NUISANCE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS W MASS AND MUCH OF CT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DECENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE H85-5 LAYER. EVALUATING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE E GREAT LAKES...CAN SEE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION...SO SOONER RATHER THAN LATER EVERYONE WILL BE BENEATH THE BLANKET. TONIGHT... S/W FOCUS OF WET WEATHER. POTENT VORTEX SWEEPING OUT TO SEA S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ACCOMPANYING JET MAX. LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOOKING AT A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN OVER SW NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY DRAGGING AS FAR N/E INTO CENTRAL AND SE NEW ENGLAND UP AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A CONSENSUS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH MOS AND SREF TOUTED MORE SO GIVEN SUCH A MARGINAL EVENT AND WIGGLE ROOM. PALTRY AMOUNTS WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH MAINLY OVER SW CT. AN EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT AFFAIR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING RELATIVELY STEADY. ITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING THAT WE CLEAR OUT AND SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 30S. BREEZY SE FLOW EARLY BECOMING LIGHT WITH PASSAGE WHICH WITH CLEARING WILL AID WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY... IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS THIS DAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND. COMBINED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD DAY OF ANABATIC FLOW AS WINDS ARE LIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO ROUGHLY H7. ANTICIPATING AN INTERIOR FLOW UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS ATOP. A LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE IF ALL COMES TOGETHER...SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SPITTING OUT SOME WET WEATHER ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE BERKSHIRES. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H8. OTHERWISE WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S PRIOR TO SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE W BY EVENING. COOL ALONG THE SHORES WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY SPRINGFIELD-HARTFORD METRO. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING. SATURDAY NIGHT... MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL THE RAIN MOVE IN? CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WITH RIDGING TO THE W ALBEIT WEAK AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCEEDS TO THE W PARENT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL APPROACH...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENCROACHING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLUMN IS FAIRLY MOIST AND WITH THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS...IT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WET WEATHER. SO LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LOWERING AND THICKENING OF CLOUDS INTO MORNING WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY. MILDER TO THE W WITH THE THICKER BLANKET FOR LONGER...COOLER E WITH CLOUDS LESSER SO. LOWS AROUND THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON * DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS * MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU OVERVIEW... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU. SAT NIGHT... HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST. FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT. SUN INTO MON... MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. TUE INTO WED... WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES. THU... LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... BKN-OVC LOW END VFR CIGS WITH -RA S/W EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT... CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING. DOMINANT E FLOW. SATURDAY... SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. DOMINANT E FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT... BKN-OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARDS MORNING DOWN TO LOW-END VFR WITH A LOW RISK OF MVFR. -RA FOR TERMINALS MAINLY W OF ORH. KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. CONTINUED E FLOW. KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... INCREASING E/SE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...EXITING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEAS BUILDING POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 FEET ON THE S OUTER WATERS BUT WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... CONTINUED E/SE FLOW THOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS. GOOD BOATING WEATHER. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL

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