Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 310707 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 307 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY MAINLY JUST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TO MOST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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NOTING ISOLD SHOWERS S OF LONG ISLAND IN AXIS OF HIGHER KI VALUES...BUT DRYING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF NEW ENG. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES S INTO SNE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY W FLOW IN SNE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 17C WILL RESULT IN A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...A BIT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST WHERE SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WE WILL LIKELY GENERATE 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW KI VALUES WILL RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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TONIGHT... WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO SNE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT N WINDS AND DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOTING KI VALUES CRASHING BELOW ZERO 06-12Z. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY... THE WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX OUT DURING THE DAY AS WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF SUNSHINE. SEABREEZES WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS E COASTAL MA...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER CT VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REACH MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NEAR 90 CT VALLEY...BUT UPPER 70S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST OF E MA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * VERY WARM ON TUESDAY EXCEPT COOLER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST * UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY * A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL * MAINLY DRY OTHER THEN PERHAPS A SPOT SHOWER/STORM THU DETAILS... ALL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. WE MAY SEE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW SPOT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ODDS ARE AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION FROM THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE TUESDAY ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT KEEPS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUE AND ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMEONE TOUCHES 90. THE HOTTEST WEATHER LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT THE MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN CONTROL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXCEPT PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES LIKELY TUESDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY TUESDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHER THAN VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THU/THU EVENING...BUT ODDS ARE AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING E/SE TUE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY SHOULD BE GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE AND AGAIN SOMETIME THU INTO FRI WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...KJC/FRANK MARINE...KJC/FRANK

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