Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 110621 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 221 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 230 AM UPDATE... RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHIELD IS DRYING UP DURING AS IT APPROACHES BUT BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS ACK AND PERHAPS MVY. STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL STRADDLING ACROSS BUZZARD BAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCREASED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS CIRRUS SHIELD HAS MOVED OVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TOMORROW... WITH WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING WELL TO THE SE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN A FURTHER MIGRATION TO THE S...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BEGIN TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY CI FROM THE WAVE...CLOUDS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF DIURNAL CU AS MODELS SHOW A MODEST MOISTURE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE BL. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO INDICATE A POCKET OR TWO OF VERY LIGHT QPF THANKS TO RAZOR THIN CAPE PROFILE ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER PER LATEST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT THAT THE OVERALL COLUMN LOOKS MUCH TOO DRY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH NIL POPS. TYPICAL MID SUMMER MIXING PROFILES AND H85 TEMPS NEAR +13C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY LOW-MID 80S /NEAR TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ EXCEPT NEAR SHORELINES WHERE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TOMORROW NIGHT... SIMILAR SETUP TO THU NIGHT AS DWPTS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A BIT MORE CLEARING AND A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT. THEREFORE...MIGHT SEE A BIT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MINS A BIT COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60F. POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE URBAN SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND * INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE * HIGH PRES RETURNS MID WEEK WITH QUIET WEATHER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BUT OVERALL FEEL A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WILL RESULT IN A REASONABLE FORECAST. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SEASONABLE AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS BOTH INDICATE PERHAPS A WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WHILE KEEPING THE MAIN FRONT BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. GIVEN THE WPC PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE GEFS...WILL GO MORE WITH THAT SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY...WITH THIS RUN OF MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND YIELDS AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THIS HAS LED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS POINT...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND THE FRONT AND WHERE ALL THIS COMES TOGETHER. PINPOINTING WHERE THESE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BEFORE 12Z... VFR FOR MOST SITES. PATCHY FOG ON ACK/MVY AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPE CAN DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. A PASSING RAIN SHOWER ACROSS ACK MAY WET THE RUNWAY. TODAY TIL TOMORROW...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN LIKELY AT NEAR SHORE TERMINALS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTLINE. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE SHOULD START 13-15Z TODAY. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCT TSRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE S OF THE WATERS EARLY TOMORROW...UNTIL THEN A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE WATERS S OF BLOCK ISLAND TO NANTUCKET THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD ON PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. OVERALL...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG MARINE...DOODY/RLG

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