Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 282334 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES. DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI * POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS. THIS WEEKEND... NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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