Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260813 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 313 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 3 AM UPDATE... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN QUITE EXTENSIVE TO OUR WEST AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THE 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SEEN ON THE 00Z NAM MODEL DEPICTS THIS WELL. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM WINDSOR LOCKS CT TO BELCHERTOWN MA TO GARDNER MA SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST SHOULD BE TOTALLY SUNNY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO ERODE IN THE WEST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A WESTERLY AIR FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT LEFTOVER FROM LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO WE COULD GET SOME WIND GUSTS MIXING TO AROUND 15-25 MPH AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE +2C TO +4C RANGE...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...EXCEPT MID AND UPPER 30S ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SATURDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MARCH DAY...IN LATE DECEMBER. OUR WEATHER WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE DRIFTED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AM EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR +6C AND AM FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR DECEMBER 27TH. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY * TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DRY DETAILS... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRINGING ANOTHER DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING SOME CIRRUS TO OUR AREA...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP. H925 TEMPS FOR SAT AFTERNOON 5C ON GFS AND 3-4C ON ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT JUST A HINT COOLER THAN PREV FORECAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA FLATTENS OUT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND AS A RESULT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS SUNDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS ARE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BROUGHT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN QUESTION IS EITHER EAST OF OUR AREA FOR MON TO TUE...OR STAYS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA MON TO TUE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DID SHOW LOW PRESSURE MAKING A CLOSE PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVER OUR AREA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT OR WED...MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS SCENARIO SO THINKING THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED TO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONFIDENT THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND PROBABLY STAYS WITH US FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUE AND WED HIGH TEMPS MAY BE LIMITED TO UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED NIGHT. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MA AND A SMALL PORTION OF HARTFORD COUNTY CT BUT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF CT/RI/EASTERN MA. W WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR NW MA. CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL WILL BE ON THE BORDER OF LOW CLOUDINESS AROUND 4000 FT TO THE NW AND SUNSHINE TO THE SE TODAY. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...FOR A COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THE 5 FT SEAS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH COAST. HEADLINES WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN...FIRST ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WEST WINDS TONIGHT COULD STILL GUST TO 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES...AND TO AROUND 15 KT SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...WINDS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GAF/NMB NEAR TERM...GAF SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...NMB/GAF MARINE...NMB/GAF

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