Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260156 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 956 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. COOL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WET WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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10 PM UPDATE... AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED WITH A FEW BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NY. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP13 HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. HENCE...BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT...JUST THE RISK OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS ACITIVITY IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEW AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. HRRR AND RAP13 BRING THAT ACTIVITY IN A WEAKEN STATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BEHIND FRONT...DECENT COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON INCREASING W/NW WINDS. LOWS IN 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK GOOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AHEAD FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS JUST ENOUGH. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG CAA STILL ALOFT. WENT A FEW MPH HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE AT IT SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE GUST POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PATTERN. APPEARS THAT THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ON TRACK...ESP ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN A TAD GUSTY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOW 40S AS GUSTY WINDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY MON/TUE WITH WARMING TREND * MILD WED WITH FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS * A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BY END OF WEEK BUT TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MON AND TUE... RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN DRY BUT BRISK W/NW FLOW MON WHICH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES MORE S/SW TUE AS HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS STAY IN 50S MON BUT SHOULD REACH LOW-MID 60S TUE WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BASED UPON MODEL 2M TEMPS. WED... APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY MILD SW FLOW TO REGION. DESPITE FACT 12Z MODELS BRING FRONT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MORNING AND MOVE IT OFFSHORE WED EVENING....MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 60S IF NOT 70 ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MA SINCE COOL AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND FRONT. THU... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER NW FLOW PREVAILS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN 50S. FRI AND SAT... UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD EASTERN US TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FROM COMBINATION OF PACIFIC ENERGY AND UPPER LOW E OF HUDSON BAY. 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER S ACROSS CAROLINAS AND DEEPER WITH ITS UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS WHICH TAKES UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT FRI INTO SAT WITH ECMWF PAINTING A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO THAN GFS WHICH SHOWS MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM EXITING NEW ENGLAND SAT. FOR NOW WE WILL USE BLEND OF MODELS TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES WHICH GIVES CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND MENTION OF PRECIP INTO SAT SHOULD ECMWF SOLUTION BECOME MORE LIKELY. DOES LOOK LIKE SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND EITHER WAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 10 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. ------------------------------------------------------------- SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z-06Z AND MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY ACROSS N MA AND SW NH. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK NEAR COAST. TOMORROW...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN040 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW NIGHT...VFR. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS 03Z-06Z SUN BUT MORE LIKELY CONDITIONS STAY VFR. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MON AND TUE...VFR. WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. THU...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 PM UPDATE... WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PREVIOUS FORECAST A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE ONSET OF THESE STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------ TONIGHT... COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 06Z-12Z WITH WNW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WNW GALES...SO HAVE HOISTED A GALE WARNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS. SUNDAY... WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. ANTICIPATE WNW GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE GUSTS. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY. SUNDAY NIGHT... WNW GALES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT GUSTS OF 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBYS AND DRY WEATHER. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...HIGH PRES OVER MID ATLC WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS NEAR SCA EARLY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING AFTERNOON. SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WELL. TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST RESULTING S/SW FLOW ACROSS WATERS BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA...MAINLY ON OPEN S COASTAL WATERS...BEFORE FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO NW DURING EVENING. NOTHING MORE THAN FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH FRONT. THURSDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM OH VALLEY TO MID ATLC COAST... BRINGING DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND SEAS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236- 250-251.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/JWD NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD

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