Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290312 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1012 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE USA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN A DRY AND COLD SPELL FOR NEW ENGLAND. A STORM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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10 PM UPDATE... STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS W MA WHERE A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS...LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S INTERIOR AND LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FLAT FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING DURING THE DAY IS FORECAST TO REACH 900 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS...SO WE WOULD EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS AT 900 MB OF -3C TO -5C WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS OF 40-45. BUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLAY WE WILL EDGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE DRY WITH SEASONAL MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK * SEASONABLE TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED * NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP POTENTIALLY SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK OFF. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS START TO SHOW SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES. AT THIS POINT...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE NEXT FEW RUNS SHAKE OUT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY BUT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COLDER AIR TO DRAIN FROM THE NORTH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY AND THEN EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. WHILE THERE IS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THIS TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT. LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO COMPLEXITIES WITH THE FLOW FAR UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL AFFECT HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM END UP INTERACTING AND ULTIMATELY HOW LOW PRESSURE ENDS UP EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND CANADA. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE GOING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A WARM STORM...SO WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE WE WAIT AND SEE HOW THE SITUATION EVOLVES UPSTREAM. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS IN W MA. GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE. FIVE FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF LINGERING 5 FT SEAS. MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 22 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS START TO BUILD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THURSDAY. FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE WATERS. QUIET BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...KJC/WTB/RLG MARINE...WTB/RLG

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