Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 250852 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 352 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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330 AM UPDATE... TWO AREAS OF RAIN APPROACHING SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THROUGH 12Z WHILE A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A DEVELOPING FINE LINE ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MUCAPES ARUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE COD BUT INSTABILITY AXIS IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE OFFSHORE SO EXPECT THE FINE LINE TO REMAIN MOSTLY S AND E OF SNE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING ACK. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR RI AND E MA...BUT WILL DROP IT ELSEWHERE. ALSO...WE KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE UPPER CAPE WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR REALLY HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY AND NE MA. WARMING INTO THE 50S STILL LIKELY...BUT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES 10-12Z WITH MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. TODAY...RAIN THIS MORNING WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST 13-17Z WITH CAPE/ISLANDS THE LAST TO DRY OUT. EXPECT PT-MOSUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION DRIES OUT THE COLUMN...WITH MOST CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BKN STRATO-CU. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30-35 KT...WITH LOW PROB FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 35-40 KT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...THEN FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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TONIGHT... HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO SNE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. GUSTY W WINDS DURING THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FRIDAY... HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLC COAST WITH MILD WESTERLY FLOW INTO NEW ENG. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * CLEARING...WINDY AND MILD CHRISTMAS DAY. * REMAINING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT. * POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN 40S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS MAINLY IN 30S. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND CONVERGENCE RATHER WEAK...SO ONLY EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA. 24/12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THE SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF COMING INTO LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS. THAT SAID...ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING 100-140 DAM SPREAD IN THE 500 MB HEIGHTS...WHICH DOES NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE ESTABLISH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD STEER ANY STORMS EITHER TO OUR NORTH...OR TOO OUR SOUTH... DEPENDING ON WHERE IT ORIGINATED. LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND TO HELP IRON OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RAIN MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARM FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MASS PIKE TO THE SOUTH COAST. WE NEED TO SEE HOW LARGER SCALE FEATURES WILL BE RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONTINUES IMPROVING TOWARD 12Z IN THE CT VALLEY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG NORTH AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE INTERIOR WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT LIFTS N. RENEWED AREA OF RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS SNE 08-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND SE MA. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST 14-18Z AS THE RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE. GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT. LOW PROB FOR G40 KT OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT EARLY...HIGHEST ALONG COAST...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF WARM FRONT MAY BE TOO FAST BY A FEW HOURS BUT WE DO EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO S BEFORE DAYBREAK. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW PROBABILITY THESE LOWER CONDITIONS MOVE FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...PREFRONTAL SW WINDS ARE BELOW GALE...BUT AFTER WIND SHIFT TO WEST...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. TONIGHT...NEAR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE SCA WIND GUSTS WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...DIMINISHING WIND BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY...WITH SEAS ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS IT DROPS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL BUT THE OUTERMOST COASTAL WATERS FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY / CHRISTMAS DAY BOS...61 IN 1996 / 65 IN 1889 PVD...60 IN 1990 / 63 IN 1964 BDL...59 IN 1996 / 64 IN 1964 ORH...57 IN 1996 / 60 IN 1964 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ005>007-013>022. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022. RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-251. GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/KJC MARINE...BELK/KJC CLIMATE...

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