Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 222108 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 407 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 405 PM UPDATE... WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...BUT SHORTWAVE SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WE ARE MAINLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A WASHOUT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WAY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP SINCE THERE IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK. THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX DOWN A BIT. GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE COLD GROUND AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN CASE TEMPS DROP OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEED ARISES FOR A SHORT FUSED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... ***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR*** SUNDAY... THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING. BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY - STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING - GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS... ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC- ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME. HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/ IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY OUTCOME. CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS OUR REGION. SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR- 60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT. NOW AS TO THE STORM... SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN- WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID- LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY- BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR. INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE SURFACE. AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS / HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW: SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-CAOST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS MONITORING. COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL PREFERENCE. THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND... CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5 TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES USHERED BY NW-FLOW. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 4 PM UPDATE... SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW SHOWERS. ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS ARE MARGINAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH SOME EXPECT LLWS WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE DECK. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER 6Z CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING....BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON AM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. GUSTY WINDS MAY OVER SPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MUSTER SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING BETTER MIXING. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GIVEN STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND AIR STILL COLDER THAN THE OCEAN...GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY OPEN WATERS TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS WITH SCA HEADLINES FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH HEAVY RAIN. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL

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