Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FGUS71 KBOX 221805 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-NHC005-011-RIC001-003-005-007-009-241815- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 105 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 ...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2015 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES... DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS GENEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RAIN AND MELTED SNOW TOTALED 3.5 TO 5 INCHES...WHICH WAS NORMAL TO ABOUT AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM 5 TO OVER 8 INCHES...WHICH WAS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING DECEMBER AVERAGED 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 TO 21 RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT. THIS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHER LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES FELL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. THIS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO OVER AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVERALL FOR JANUARY TO DATE HAVE AVERAGED 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... THE SNOW DEPTH AS OF THURSDAY JANUARY 22 WAS ZERO TO 1 INCH ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THIS AREA WAS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES HAD 1 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER DEPTHS ACROSS WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS UP TO 0.5 INCH...EXCEPT UP TO AN INCH IN WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. THIS WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... STREAM FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RANGED FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS...AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN RHODE ISLAND. FROM JANUARY 7 TO 18...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENABLED ICE BUILDUP ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. ICE BUILDUP ON THE MILLERS RIVER IN ROYALSTON CAUSED ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS IN THAT VICINITY LAST WEEK...BUT LEVELS HAVE SINCE RECEDED. NO FLOOD IMPACTS WERE REPORTED AS A RESULT OF THE ELEVATED RIVER STAGE. RIVER ICE WAS ALSO REPORTED ON THE MILLERS RIVER IN ATHOL BUT AS OF LAST WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL WAS STILL FLOWING OPEN IN THE ATHOL AREA. DURING THIS PAST WEEKEND...RAINFALL OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES FELL ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...CAUSING SOME OF THE ICE THAT HAD FORMED TO MOVE AND IN SOME CASES FLUSH OUT. THERE IS LIKELY CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN RIVER ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE NUMBER OF ICE AFFECTED RIVERS AND STREAMS IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN STEADY OR CONTINUE TO GROW AS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 2 WEEKS. ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY... AS OF JANUARY 22 THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXAMINING GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) MOST GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE REPORTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN RHODE ISLAND THERE WERE POCKETS WHERE GROUND WATER LEVELS CONTINUED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEING POSSIBLE WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN...SIGNIFICANT FRESHWATER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY NWS TAUNTON MA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MAKE A CLOSE PASS TO OUR REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MORE SNOW. OTHER THAN THIS POTENTIAL...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY AS WELL AS DURING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...FROM JANUARY 29 TO FEBRUARY 4...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THAT PERIOD. ...SUMMARY... BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL AND STREAM LEVELS WERE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT SNOWPACK AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME BUILDUP IN SNOWPACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND INITIAL BELOW NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE RIVER ICE BUILDUP IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED FREEZE UP ICE JAMS SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WITHOUT A SNOWPACK. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS...THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK. THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6. $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

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