Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FGUS71 KBOX 161600 ESFBOX CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025- 027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-181200- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1200 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 ...THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE SHORTER TERM...MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM...WHICH IS THE RESULT OF RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS THE NINTH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2015 WINTER/SPRING SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EVERY ONE TO TWO WEEKS INTO THE SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES... A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN HAS EMERGED IN APRIL WITH THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE SITES REPORTING PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BELOW AVERAGE SO FAR THIS MONTH. AFTER A COLD START TO THE MONTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MORE TYPICAL OF SPRING OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN APRIL HAVE AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS... THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MASSACHUSETTS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF PATCHY SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WATER CONTENT OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK IS LESS THAN ONE INCH. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS WERE RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RIVER ICE WAS NO LONGER PRESENT. ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY... SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )...SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT. GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE GENERALLY RECOVERED TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND RESERVOIR WAS AT A LEVEL OF 284.76 FEET AS OF APRIL 15...WHICH IS 103.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND 0.8 FEET ABOVE THE SPILLWAY LEVEL. THIS LEVEL IS ABOUT 1.8 FEET ABOVE THE APRIL HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 283 FT. AS OF APRIL 1...QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS AT 94.9 PERCENT CAPACITY AND WACHUSETT RESERVOIR WAS AT 85.2 PERCENT CAPACITY. ...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS SOME RAINFALL TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM ONGOING MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 23 TO 29 CALLS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. ...SUMMARY... THE LONGER TERM SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE SHORTER TERM...MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH MIDDLE HADDAM. THE SNOWPACK IS LARGELY GONE ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS...COMBINED WITH THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE APRIL...INDICATES THE LONGER TERM POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WITHOUT A SNOWPACK. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON THE OPTION CURRENT HAZARDS...THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON. $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

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