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000 NOUS41 KBOX 162010 PNSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-171700- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 410 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...RULES OF THUMB FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES - PART 3... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DECLARED THIS WEEK AS HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FOLLOWING IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF FIVE STATEMENTS...THE FIRST THREE WITH RULES OF THUMB FOR NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES AND THE LAST TWO WITH PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. YESTERDAY WE DISCUSSED THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW IN A GENERAL SENSE WHICH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE YOU MIGHT BE. TYPICALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS TO THE LEFT OF THE STORM TRACK...WITH STRONG WINDS AND MAXIMIZED STORM SURGE TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE PURPOSE IS GET AN IDEA OF WHICH HAZARDS YOU ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AT YOUR LOCATION. HERE IS ANOTHER RULE OF THUMB FOR NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES...AND IT WORKS PRETTY WELL. IF YOU WANT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE MAXIMUM WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE AT YOUR LOCATION YOU CAN TAKE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND THEN ADD THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM IF YOU ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...OR SUBTRACT THE FORWARD MOTION IF YOU ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...WINDS CIRCULATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND LOW PRESSURE AREAS...SUCH AS HURRICANES. THUS...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HURRICANES THAT IMPACT NEW ENGLAND ARE USUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. SO...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE WHOLE STORM IS IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE STORM...WHICH HAS AN ADDITIVE EFFECT. TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE STORM IS OPPOSING THE NORTH TO SOUTH WINDS BLOWING AROUND THE STORM...WHICH HAS THE EFFECT OF REDUCING THE WIND GUSTS OBSERVED AT THE GROUND. LET US LOOK AT A COUPLE OF EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE THIS RULE OF THUMB...STARTING WITH HURRICANE BOB FROM AUGUST OF 1991. THE CENTER OF BOB TRACKED FROM NEWPORT RHODE ISLAND NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE 95 MPH AND IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...ONE WOULD EXPECT 95 PLUS 25...OR 120 MPH GUSTS. MEASURED PEAK WIND GUSTS WERE 125 MPH AT BREWSTER AND NORTH TRURO ON CAPE COD. TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK...ONE WOULD EXPECT 95 MINUS 25...OR 70 MPH GUSTS. OBSERVATIONS OF 65 TO 75 MPH GUSTS WERE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF RHODE ISLAND. AS WITH ANY RULE OF THUMB THERE CAN BE EXCEPTIONS. THERE WAS ONE ISOLATED ANOMALY DURING BOB. THAT WAS WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN CONNECTICUT...WHICH PRODUCED AN ISOLATED POWERFUL WIND GUST OF 125 MPH IN WETHERSFIELD CONNECTICUT. ON SEPTEMBER 21 1938...THE GREAT NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE OF 1938 TRACKED FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...THEN STRAIGHT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 125 MPH AND IT WAS RACING NORTHWARD AT 60 MPH. MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS TO THE RIGHT OF ITS TRACK. USING THIS RULE OF THUMB...ONE WOULD EXPECT 125 PLUS 60...OR 185 MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS EAST OF THE TRACK. THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY...LOCATED IN MILTON MASSACHUSETTS AT AN ELEVATION OF 660 FEET...RECORDED ITS RECORD WIND GUST OF 186 MPH. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WE WILL CONCENTRATE ON PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS FOR NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES. $$ FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT @NWSBOSTON

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