Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK - PART FIVE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DECLARED THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 3-7
AS WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK. THE FOLLOWING IS PART 5 OF A
5-PART SERIES OF INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS.

PART 5 - THE TAUNTON SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES EXPERIMENT

THIS WINTER...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN BOSTON/TAUNTON...
NEW YORK CITY/UPTON...PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY...AND WASHINGTON
D.C./STERLING WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN A SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES
EXPERIMENTAL TEST. THE TEST IS SET TO OFFICIALLY BEGIN ON DEC. 1.

FOR A FEW YEARS...WE HAVE BEEN PROVIDING A MAP OF OUR EXPECTED
SNOWFALL FORECAST. NOW...THAT DETERMINISTIC FORECAST WILL BECOME THE
CENTER GRAPHIC OF A THREE-GRAPHIC SET ON OUR WEBSITE/S WINTER
WEATHER SECTION. IT IS THE `MOST LIKELY` FORECAST. THIS YEAR...WE
WILL BE ADDING MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM GRAPHICS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
GRAPHIC. THEY REPRESENT THE 10- AND 90-PERCENTILE OF FORECASTS. IN
OTHER WORDS...FOR THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS...THERE IS ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE EXCEEDED. THUS...IT REPRESENTS A PLAUSIBLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO. THE MINIMUM GRAPHIC WOULD REPRESENT HOW MUCH IS
`GUARANTEED`...WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT AMOUNT.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES FOR VARIOUS
THRESHOLDS. THIS YEAR...WE WILL BE ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL
THRESHOLDS...SUCH AS THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES AND
THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW. THESE PROBABILITY
GRAPHICS CAN BE EXTREMELY HELPFUL. FOR EXAMPLE...IN SOME STORMS
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 2 OR 4 INCHES...BUT NEAR
ZERO PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. IN OTHER SITUATIONS...
SOMETIMES THE JURY IS STILL OUT AND THERE ARE MORE EQUAL
PROBABILITIES OF EITHER 4 INCHES OR 12 INCHES. THE PROBABILITIES ARE
A GOOD PLANNING TOOL TO BE ABLE TO GAUGE THE EXPECTED SCOPE OF AN
EVENT.

ALSO...NEW THIS YEAR...THERE WILL BE A CHART WHICH ENABLES YOU TO
CLICK ON YOUR COUNTY AND FIND YOUR CITY/TOWN AND THE PROBABILITY OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR VARIOUS RANGES. BY CLICKING A BUTTON THAT
SAYS `SWITCH TO EXCEEDANCE` YOU WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO SEE THE
PROBABILITY THAT SNOW WILL EXCEED A GIVEN THRESHOLD.

THE NWS-TAUNTON WINTER WEATHER PAGE CAN BE FOUND AT...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOX/WINTER

&&
FIELD



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